FBI data shows a 10.4% increase in violent crime and a 6.4% increase in property crime since 2019

Annual FBI victimization surveys show violent crime increased 10.4% and property crime increased 6.4% between 2019 and 2023.

Each year, the FBI releases key crime reporting data for the previous calendar year, as well as a separate crime victimization survey that asks Americans what crimes they have fallen victim to. Comparing these reports provides insight into crime reporting rates and the accuracy of crime statistics.

While previous reports have shown it to be theft deterioration and often underreportedthe growing divergence between the FBI’s annual crime survey and reported crimes suggests worsening trends in thefts.

However, recent changes in crime reporting data collection and anomalous data and reporting from the 2020 COVID-era have caused confusion.

The FBI back in 2016 gave agencies a January 1, 2021 deadline to move from the paper-based Summary Reporting System, which reports every crime incident with the worst crime committed in the incident, to the computer-based National Incident-Based Reporting System, which Can log up to 10 crimes per incident. But 40% law enforcement agencies did not make the change in a timely manner. This included most agencies in populous California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Florida, as well as the two largest agencies: New York Police Department and Los Angeles Police Department.

As a result, between 2020 and 2021, reported violent and property crimes decreased by 15.9% and 27.3%, respectively, while at the same time violent crime victimization increased by 0.9% and property decreased by 3.3%. The ratio of reported violent crime to victimization fell from 85.6% in 2021 to 71.4% in 2021, while that of property crime fell from 51.6% to 38.8%, highlighting that reported crime figures for 2021 is the result of a confusing transition in data collection.

For 2022 and 2023, the data has improved, and only for 17% of agencies fail to submit at least three months of NIBRS data in 2022, and 16,009 agencies cover 95.2% of the national population is reporting for 2023. Full 2023 data released at the end of September now shows that violent crime reporting rates – reports divided by victimizations – for property crimes are back to 2019 levels, but property crime reporting rates are at 14.4% is below 2019 levels, underscoring the perception that Americans are simply not reporting as many property crimes that occur to them.

Kenneth Schrupp
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Reposted with permission