Ohio State vs. Nebraska football prediction: What the analysis says

After an open week and its first loss of the season, No. 4 Ohio State returns home Saturday against conference rival Nebraska. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game using an analytical model that selects matchups.

Ohio State is just one point away from being undefeated after a loss at Oregon two weeks ago and should not be prepared for another critical road test next week at Penn State.

Nebraska is in danger of falling below .500 in Big Ten play after being beaten by new contender Indiana last week. Up until that point, it played solid defense and still allowed less than 18 points per game, but on the other hand, it averaged just 25 90th nationally.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

As expected, the simulations are heavily on the Buckeyes’ side over the Cornhuskers.

Ohio State is expected to win the game by overpowering 96.5 percent the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining game 3.5 percent by Sims.

Overall, the Buckeyes are ahead in 19,300 of the index’s simulations, while the Cornhuskers are outpacing OSU in the other 700 predictions.

When it comes to predicting a margin of victory, the index also predicts a sizable win for the Buckeyes on the scoreboard.

Ohio State is expected to be 29.7 points better than Nebraska on the same field with both teams’ current makeup, according to the model’s latest prediction.

If so, that would be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against the Cornhuskers, according to updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total below 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -6000 and for Nebraska at +1800 win directly.

So far, most bettors are giving the Buckeyes the edge over the Cornhuskers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ohio State gets 61 percent of bets to beat the Huskers while covering the wide spread.

The other one 39 percent of bets assume the Cornhuskers will either win the game in an upset or, more likely, lose the game by 25 points or less.

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with one 78 percent Chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI statistics.

This model gives the Buckeyes an overall win prediction of 10.7 games this season.

Nebraska is eighth in the conference with one 0.1 percent Shot at the new 12-team playoff.

And the Cornhuskers are expected to win 6.5 games this season according to the Index’s calculations.

The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including past results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

Teams are not ranked by talent like other rankings, but rather by a projected points margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. army
24. marine
25. Vanderbilt

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection