Expert says to go beyond Tokyo-rural debate and focus on happiness levels

The upcoming parliamentary elections will take place on October 27th. Key topics discussed include Japan’s declining birth rate and the aging population. Another big issue is the centralization of Tokyo. Rural areas in particular, already facing a sharp decline in population, are concerned about the continued migration of young people to the capital.

However, Japan’s development has benefited from the concentration of people and resources in large metropolitan areas, making this dynamic difficult to change.

Some experts emphasize the importance of shifting the focus to “happiness levels” and moving away from the outdated “Tokyo versus country” framework in future discussions.

Ishiba’s commitment to local regions

On October 15, the first day of the general election campaign, Shigeru Ishiba, the new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, gave a speech in Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture.

He explained: “It is never the elites in the capital who change the country. It’s the people in the local regions – the everyday citizens.”

While Ishiba has been criticized for inconsistencies in some of his statements, his commitment to prioritizing local regions has remained consistent.

In his keynote address on October 4, Ishiba highlighted the government’s plan to focus on five pillars of protection, including protecting regional communities. He also announced the establishment of a headquarters for the creation of new regional economies and living spaces and mentioned the doubling of regional development grants.

Concerns from Tokyo

At the same time, concerns about this attitude are growing in Tokyo.

At the August meeting of the National Governors’ Association (NGA), an emergency declaration to combat population decline included a reference to “population concentration in certain areas.”

This was widely interpreted as blaming Tokyo’s centralization for exacerbating the problem. The “Tokyo vs. regional areas” debate has cropped up repeatedly at the NGA and other forums. Many prefectures fear population decline will accelerate as more people move to Tokyo, which already has the lowest total fertility rate in the country.

Reacting to the appointment of Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister, a Tokyo official remarked, “Are we being cast as the villain again?”

Many candidates in the upcoming parliamentary elections are placing renewed emphasis on policies aimed at revitalizing the region.

Tokyo’s dominance is reflected in the statistics. As of October 1, 2023, population estimates from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications show that Tokyo’s population grew by 0.34% compared to 2022 to 14.08 million. This represents an increase of 0.14 percentage points, making Tokyo the only region with population growth.

Additionally, Tokyo’s nominal GDP was approximately JPY 113 trillion (approximately $741 billion), accounting for over 10% of the country’s population and more than 20% of Japan’s total GDP.

Concentration of talent

However, when viewed from a broader perspective, a different picture emerges. “The concentration is not just limited to Tokyo. It also includes the three surrounding prefectures – Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa. Criticizing only Tokyo is wrong,” said Takeshi So, a professor of urban planning at Reitaku University’s School of Engineering.

The metropolis of Tokyo and the three surrounding prefectures account for almost 30% of Japan’s population and over 30% of its GDP. It is noteworthy that the region’s GDP share exceeds its population share.

Professor So explains: “This shows the exceptional productivity of the region. In order to redistribute population to rural areas, it is crucial to maintain current levels of productivity. However, the means to achieve this remain uncertain.”

Looking back on Japan’s development since the Meiji Restoration, Professor So explains: “Japan has prospered by concentrating talent from across the country in major cities. This concentration has driven the country’s remarkable growth and changing this structure is not realistic.”

He concludes: “The concept of a fulfilling life probably varies between large cities and rural areas. Our focus should be on discussions that increase happiness levels in every region.”

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(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Shinnosuke Oizumi, The Sankei Shimbun