WTC 2025 Finals: Qualification scenarios, required points and wins for all teams to reach the World Test Championship finals

The World Test Championship (WTC) matches are expected to be tightly packed, with the previous cycle’s finalists India and Australia currently occupying the top spots. However, the two teams will face each other in a five-match test series from November.

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This gives other teams a chance to compete for a place in the final at the expense of India and Australia or both.

Although there is a chance of outdoing either of the two, it will be a Herculean task for the remaining seven teams to challenge from the top two spots.

The Sports News takes a look at the qualification scenario of all nine teams if they want to qualify for the finals of the 2023-25 ​​WTC cycle.

Latest updated World Test Championship points table

Qualification scenarios for all teams in the WTC 2023-25

The current qualification cutoff for the top ranked teams, i.e. India and Australia, is 58% of the points. Other teams need to score 60% of the points to overtake either India or Australia. As the games get closer and closer, we take a detailed look at the qualification chances of all nine teams in the table.

India

Leaders India are currently in pole position heading into a third consecutive WTC final. After a recent 4-1 series win against Ben Stokes’ England at home and a 2-0 win against Bangladesh, the Men in Blue need just three wins from their remaining seven games to secure their place in the final.

They will next play 3 home Tests against New Zealand, followed by a 5-match Border-Gavaskar away series in Australia.

Despite being a dominant force in the WTC, the Men in Blue are yet to win the cup, having lost to New Zealand and Australia in the previous two finals.

India’s remaining series/matches

• India vs New Zealand – 2 matches (H)
• India vs Australia – 5 matches (A)

Required wins from 7 games: 3

Chance of qualifying – 90%

READ MORE: When does the Border-Gavaskar Trophy start? Complete Aus vs Ind Test Series Schedule

Australia

Australia, the reigning WTC champions, are currently second in the standings after India and still have work to do to secure their place in the final. The six-time world champion has seven games left in his season and needs to win at least four to secure his final spot.

Although they face a challenging task, they are still better off than the remaining teams in the standings.

Australia’s remaining series/games

• Australia vs India – 5 games (H)
• Australia vs Sri Lanka – 2 games (A)

Required wins from 7 games: 4

Chance of qualifying – 70%

READ MORE: Cummins is on an 8-week break and aims to win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka have played nine matches so far in the 2023-25 ​​WTC cycle. The Lankan Lions have won five games and lost four games so far. After Sri lost the three-match series 1-2 against England, they won the two-match home series against New Zealand 2-0.

Sri Lanka still have four games left in the tournament and need to secure victory in at least three games to reach the final.

Remaining series/matches in Sri Lanka

• Sri Lanka vs South Africa – 2 games (A)
• Sri Lanka vs Australia – 2 games (H)

Required wins from 4 games: 3

Chances of qualifying – 35%

READ MORE: Australia is hungry to win back the Border-Gavaskar Trophy from India, says Nathan Lyon

England

England have played the games by far compared to any other team in the current WTC cycle. Ben Stokes’ side have played 18 games so far, winning nine and losing eight. They recently secured a 2-1 win at home against Sri Lanka in a three-match Test series.

Going into the second Test in Multan, they had five games left after a big win in the first, and their terrible start to the season left them with the daunting task of winning all five games to progress to the final.

However, their chances of qualifying for the WTC final are numerically nil with a 152-run defeat in Multan. Winning all four remaining games, one against Pakistan in Rawalpindi and three away in New Zealand, will not be enough.

England’s remaining series/games

• England vs Pakistan – 1 games (A)
• England v New Zealand – 3 games (A)

Required wins from 4 games: 4

Chances of qualifying – 0%

MORE: WTC 2024/25 Updated Points Table

South Africa

The Proteas got off to a great start to their WTC campaign, winning the first game against India by an innings and 32 runs. However, they lost three games in a row, jeopardizing their first chances of reaching the WTC finals.

They drew the Test series at home against India and then lost the away series against New Zealand 0-2. They currently have five games left and need to win four games to qualify for the final.

South Africa remaining series/games

• South Africa vs Bangladesh – 1 game (A)
• South Africa vs Sri Lanka – 2 games (H)
• South Africa vs Pakistan – 2 games (H)

Required wins from 5 games: 4

Chances of qualifying – 25%

New Zealand

The Black Caps have won four games and lost five in the competition with six games remaining.

In the second Test, they suffered another defeat against Sri Lanka, which further impacted their position. With this defeat and the recent first Test win against India, they are in fourth place in the competition.

With only five games left, winning all games is the only way for them to secure a place in the final. This would increase their share to 64.

New Zealand’s remaining series/games

• New Zealand vs India – 2 games (A)
• New Zealand v England – 3 games (H)

Required wins from 5 games: 5

Chance of qualifying – 10%

Pakistan

The eighth-placed team Pakistan has played nine matches so far in the current WTC cycle. They won three and lost six. Their most recent series defeat (0-3) was against Australia, a 0-2 home defeat against Bangladesh and the Multan Test defeat has significantly dented their chances. However, a massive 152-run win in the second Test of the series against England would reignite the fire in the team and a late return to the competition cannot be ruled out.

Their qualification for the WTC 2025 final is difficult considering they will be playing away against South Africa.

Pakistan’s remaining series/matches

• Pakistan vs England – 1 games (H)
• Pakistan vs South Africa – 2 games (A)
• Pakistan vs West Indies – 2 games (H)

Required wins from 5 games: 5

Chances of qualifying – 0%

READ MORE: Has Pakistan ever been whitewashed in a Test series at home?

Bangladesh

Bangladesh are currently seventh in the table after moving up two places with a 2-0 win against Pakistan in the away Test series.

However, this did not change their fortunes as they had previously lost 0-2 to Sri Lanka, 0-2 to India and followed by their first Test defeat to South Africa.

Bangladesh have a negligible chance of reaching the WTC 2025 final as they require four wins in their three remaining matches, which mathematically rules them out.

Remaining series/matches in Bangladesh

• Bangladesh vs South Africa – 1 game (H)
• Bangladesh vs West Indies – 2 matches (A)

Required wins from 3 games: 3

Chances of qualifying – 0%

West Indies

West Indies are currently at the bottom of the table with just one win in nine games in the WTC. The recent 3-0 defeat away to England has ruled them out of qualifying for the final. Even if they manage to win all four remaining games of the season, they would still be a long way from qualifying.

West Indies remaining series/matches

• West Indies vs Bangladesh – 2 games (H)
• West Indies vs Pakistan – 2 matches (A)

Required wins from 4 games: 4

Chances of qualifying – 0%