The definitive guide to overreacting to the start of the NBA season

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So you want to overreact to the start of the season? We may be able to help you do it correctly and safely.

It’s completely normal to be emotional at the start of a new Celtics season. It’s been a while since anyone has played real basketball, and the ring ceremony and raising of Banner 18 are enough to make anyone cry. But the feeling that Boston will come into the game at 82-0 after dismantling the reloaded Knicks could be a sign that you need professional help.

And you’ve come to the right place. Here at Overreaction Consultants LLC, we take a data-driven approach to overreaction and have prepared this premium package for those who want to experience more than just an emotional mess by early December. It’s just four easy payments of $7.99 plus shipping.

In the meantime, please read our Basic Code of Conduct brochure. It is intended to give you an idea of ​​the unsurpassed quality we offer. Remember: overreacting is nothing to be ashamed of, and we are always here for you!

1. DO NOT assume that a shot rate will last up to 150 shots

In professional circles, it is considered poor etiquette to focus too much on shot rate before obtaining a sample size of 150 shots.

After Jayson Tatum shot 8-for-11 from three after a summer filled with questions about whether he could even shoot, it might be tempting to assume that he will actually shoot over 70 percent from three for the rest of the season. That won’t happen. If he starts the season 110-150 from that range, this conversation could be had in small groups.

In another week, let alone the rest of the year, the Celtics as a team won’t even shoot 47 percent from distance. They shot 61 three-pointers, and one could begin to examine whether the Celtics are simply the best three-point shooting team of all time (by a full five percent) if they can do that in three games in a row. Such an assumption is currently nonsense.

Fortunately, it also works in the other direction. Payton Pritchard shot 1-9 from three, which will certainly improve as the season progresses. But one must remain vigilant not to offend civil society; To maintain self-respect, we recommend this mantra: “

Tatum will miss more shots and Pritchard will make more. And that’s okay.”

Repeat seven times daily.

2. Be excited about players who perform well, who you hoped would also perform well

It’s unsavory to jump on a bandwagon that’s already in motion, especially if you’ve said derogatory things about the player in the past. But as long as one was on the waiting list for the Xavier Tillman move, they’re welcome as soon as he has an outlandish 17-point performance.

There is no harm in such excitement as long as one does not assume that this level of production will continue. Optimism is neither a crime nor a virtue. It’s simply a human necessity, and belief in the Celtics’ backup players shouldn’t be taken as an insult. However, a quick change from a diametrically opposed view based on a game has no place in serious circles. Please post this content to anonymous message boards.

3. Don’t carry over anything you “remember” from the previous season to the actual season

While general opinion is still mixed, professional research has suggested for years that preseason literally doesn’t matter at all.

The NBA preseason is not for the fans or for serious analysts like you. It’s just up to teams to test lineups, rotations, and fringe players to dust themselves off and slim down their lineups. However, actual information about basketball cannot be plausibly obtained. Once the regular season begins, overreactions must be based solely on basketball played at that time or in previous seasons. Nothing should come from summer or early fall strips.

“Why isn’t JD Davison playing? He was so good in the preseason…” is an absurd statement and should not be said under any circumstances. The same ban applies to the Summer League, the Olympic Games and all FIBA ​​competitions. Appearances at pro-ams – like when Payton Pritchard scored 92 points in Portland – should be a given.

4. Revise the award and NBA Finals Free predictions

The idea that you have to stick to preseason predictions – like saying the Celtics will beat the Nuggets in the NBA Finals, that Luka Doncic will win MVP, and that De’Aaron Fox will make the All-NBA Third Team will – is nonsense. One should feel free to update them liberally.

If Doncic has an inexplicably terrible October, not changing his MVP pick isn’t confidence, but rather stupid intransigence. Intellectual flexibility is the key to a fulfilling life and necessary to stay in society’s favor.

There is a growing body of literature about the statute of limitations on this concept. Whether one can change one’s MVP choice once it is clear that no one comes close to Doncic’s 37-13-11 stat line is still up for debate. However, you should feel free to change your selection at any time as the NBA is beyond our control. There is therefore no reason to lock people into outdated attitudes.

5. Don’t assume you’re smarter than an NBA team

As much as it may seem like the Brooklyn Nets are run by fools, they are not. No NBA team is made up of idiots, and hundreds of millions of dollars are spent every year to ensure this. Coaches have more information than any fan about the players in their locker room, and general managers are constrained by ownership or forced to make decisions that the public isn’t even aware of.

Instead of calling out a team’s incompetence – which is considered relatively distasteful in most circles – try to address why you think that way. Gut reactions often only closely correspond to reality, but when properly classified they can lead to more sophisticated opinions.

Instead of saying, “The Nets are so STUPID for starting Ben Simmons!” Ask, “Why am I so offended that Ben Simmons is starting in the 2024 NBA?” Instead of trashing JJ Redick for having four power forwards has deployed, ask yourself, “Why did he make this lineup decision that I think is so stupid?”

That’s not to say fans can’t judge NBA teams’ decisions; They definitely can. But they must do so with a modicum of respect and not rely too much on hindsight. In this way, even the most divided parties can find common ground.

If you are interested in purchasing the full premium package – including an audiobook, online access code and weekly consulting sessions with one of our trained professionals – please contact overreactionconsultants.sales@hotmail.com. We would be happy to talk to you about pricing options!