BC Distaff could yield an Awesome Result

Thorpedo Anna fans, brace yourselves. I’m not jumping on
the hype train for the top-ranked 3-year-old filly, nor am I buying into the
narrative that the Breeders’ Cup Distaff is a two-horse showdown between
her and last year’s champ Idiomatic.
I like to break the mold, look at every angle and keep the bias
at the door. That’s how my division rankings rolls.

Sure, Thorpedo Anna’s had the best season by a 3-year-old
filly since Monomoy Girl in 2018, but let’s pump the brakes on those lofty
comparisons for now. To even think about surpassing Monomoy Girl, or Songbird
before her in 2016, she has one more job, to win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. So,
let’s cool it with the over-the-top historical comparisons. She’s obviously talented,
but she’s still got work to do before we crown her as one of the greats in the last decade or two.

With 11 horses likely in the gate for the Breeders’ Cup
Distaff, it’s clear the top two U.S. female dirt stars aren’t scaring anyone
off. The buildup has sparked memories of the epic 2016 Songbird vs. Beholder
duel, one of the best Breeders’ Cup races ever. Could we get another young vs.
seasoned veteran showdown? Maybe. But remember, just three years ago we were
promised a Malathaat vs. Letruska battle, only for Japan’s Marche Lorraine to
crash the party at 49-1.

Japan is back in the mix. Awesome Result is her name, and she isn’t sneaking in as a long shot. She’ll be
no worse than the third or fourth wagering choice, and she’s here to spoil the fun again.

More on the Distaff is below, but first, let’s take a glance
at the rankings as we gear up for Breeders’ Cup weekend, just over a week away.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. Who else deserves the spot? Yes, he lost his second straight race in the Grade 1 California Crown, coming up a head short to Subsanador. But he’s the only horse in this division with multiple Grade 1 wins this season. If he runs, and that’s a huge if, and wins the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, the Eclipse could be his to claim. That said, my confidence in him has definitely dipped. If he falls short in the Breeders’ Cup, plenty below him could snatch the Eclipse with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

2. Highland Falls. Last time out he delivered one of the most impressive performances we’ve seen in this division all season, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). It wasn’t just the win but how he achieved it. From the start he took the race to Arthur’s Ride, engaging in a spirited early battle. Highland Falls pulled ahead around the far turn and never looked back, crossing the finish line with an open-lengths win. Although his final quarter was notably slow, it remains the biggest win of his nine-race career. This season he has won half of his six starts, including the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs in June. Could he take this Eclipse with a Breeders’ Cup Classic win? I think he can.

3. Subsanador. I had high hopes for this guy earlier in the season and he was even ranked, but like many South America imports, he took his sweet time getting up to speed. The California Crown winner is trained by Richard Mandella, who’s had success with these types before, including  Sandpit, Malek, Siphon and Gentlemen. Subsanador is finally starting to show what he’s made of. He has taken clear steps forward and is now a legitimate player in the division but now has been put on the shelf until next season because of injury.

4. Pyrenees. A model of consistency, he’s 3-for-5 this season with runner-up finishes in two Grade 1s, the Stephen Foster and most recently the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He might not make it into the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but he stands as the first alternate if any pre-entries drop out.

5. Tapit Trice. Slim pickings, but this week I’m going with Tapit Trice. He won the Woodward (G2) last out, beating Skippylongstocking. Neither of them is what I’d consider Grade 1 material, but a win’s a win. At least Tapit Trice managed to win a somewhat relevant race, taking down Skippylongstocking and, for what it’s worth, Crupi. He’s pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but he’ll be a big long shot.

Next 5: Señor Buscador, Arthur’s Ride, Mixto, Skippylongstocking, Newgate

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. She owned the Spinster (G1) again this season, making it back-to-back wins. You’d think she’d be the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but nope. Cue the Thorpedo Anna hype train, which probably will steal the spotlight and betting dollars. Honestly, I’ve been more impressed with her in her two losses this season than in her wins, but she’s still had a rock-solid year. With Japan’s Awesome Result also expected to show up, the Distaff is shaping up to be one of the better Breeders’ Cup battles.

2. Adare Manor. News of her retirement broke, so her Eclipse hopes end prematurely. She will remain in these rankings for now. In her last start, a Clement L. Hirsch (G1) win, she showed us something new. Heart and a whole new gear. On the far turn it looked like she was in trouble, but then she blew past a solid field to win decisively. She was 3-for-4 this season with two Grade 1 victories, more than anyone else in this division. If the season ended today, she’d definitely make my top three on the Eclipse ballot, which is why she’s still holding her rank.

3. Raging Sea. She squeaked out a win in the Beldame (G2), but it was far from impressive. She had to go all out just to edge past Batucuda, a horse who’s basically an optional claimer and couldn’t even hit the board in two graded-stakes tries in Canada. Her upset over Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1) still feels like a fluke, and if she somehow finds her way to the winner’s circle in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, I’ll be absolutely stunned.

4. Randomized. Engaged in an early battle with Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign but couldn’t keep up and faded to finish fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. But she did win the Ogden Phipps (G1) by upsetting Idiomatic earlier this season and will have another chance this fall. Hasn’t worked for over 60 days and was not entered in the Breeders’ Cup.

5. Sweet Azteca. Was stunningly off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season, winning four of her five starts. Won’t run in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

Next 5: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn

3-year-old males

1. Fierceness. He went into the Travers (G1) with a lot of question marks but answered them loud and clear, digging deep in the stretch to fend off Thorpedo Anna for a gutsy, popular win. He’s back on top of the division, but he’ll face a tougher field in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and probably won’t get such a cozy pace setup. The Eclipse is his to win or lose if Preakness winner Seize the Grey comes up short in the Dirt Mile earlier in the day.

2. Dornoch. Really had no excuses in the Travers as he sat off the slow early fractions set by Batten Down. Still, he did win the Belmont Stakes and Haskell (G1). Out of the Eclipse race now because of his premature retirement, he will stay in my rankings for now because he is in the top three and would be on my Eclipse ballot if the season ended today.

3. Seize the Grey. The Preakness winner snapped his two-race losing streak with a big win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), putting him back in the Eclipse conversation. This son of Arrogate now has some control of his Eclipse destiny. He needs to win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and hope Fierceness gets defeated in the Classic.

4. Sierra Leone. Arguably the most consistent horse in this division, Sierra Leone once again fell short in a big race. But he performed as well as could be expected in the Travers, especially given the circumstances. Unlike Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna, he doesn’t have that tactical speed, which put him at a disadvantage with the slow pace. He’s clearly a top-two or top-three contender in this division. I still believe he’ll come through on a big day, and if he catches a favorable pace in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he could surprise.

5. Forever Young. He looked sharp winning the Japan Dirt Classic, his first race since getting robbed in the Kentucky Derby when he was fouled multiple times in the stretch. Now 5-for-6 in his career, only those two noses in the Kentucky Derby keep him from being unbeaten in his career. This guy’s my pick for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, no question.

Next 5: Mystik Dan, Stronghold, Dragoon Guard, Muth, Catching Freedom

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. She prevailed in the Cotillion (G1) at Parx by a diminishing neck for her fourth Grade 1 victory this season. Before the Cotillion she exceeded all expectations by raising her game to finish a strong runner-up in the Travers. The Cotillion saw Thorpedo Anna regress substantially speed-figure-wise from her previous race, calling into question the validity of some of the figures assigned in the Travers. She will have a tough task ahead of her in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

2. Power Squeeze. Could do no batter than seventh in the Cotillion, beaten by nearly 10 lengths by Thorpedo Anna. Previously she was an impressive winner of the Alabama (G1), where she narrowly defeated Candied by a head. She has won three graded stakes this season.

3. Sugar Fish. Huge win in the Zenyatta (G2) last out, becoming the first in her division to defeat older in a meaningful race. Earlier she scored an open-lengths win in the Summertime Oaks (G2). She will run in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4. Candied. She didn’t embarrass herself facing older mares for the first time last out, finishing a solid third in the Spinster behind Idiomatic. Not bad for a 3-year-old stepping up against the big girls. This came on the heels of runner-up finishes in two straight Grade 1 races. She was second to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and followed that with a runner-up in the Alabama. She also took home the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth before that. She consistently knocks on the door. It’s just a matter of time before she kicks it down. She too will try the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

5. Gun Song. Nearly pulled off a major upset in the Cotillion when she rallied after being passed by her rival to nearly come back and score the win. She has only one graded-stakes win this year but prepped for the Cotillion with a listed-stakes score and looks to be better now with age. Runs this weekend in the Mother Goose (G2) at Aqueduct.

Next 5: Ways and Means, Tarifa, Leslie’s Rose, Nothing Like You, Hope Road

Turf males

1. Johannes. Scored another big win last out in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita for his fourth graded-stakes win of the season. With a 7-for-10 career record, he’s cemented himself at the top spot here and will be among the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

2. Far Bridge. After a slow start to this season, Far Bridge is heating up at the right time. His win in the Joe Hirsch (G1) last out was his second straight Grade 1 win of the season. Now 3-for-6 on the season, he is very much in this Eclipse race. Will run in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

3. Carl Spackler. This guy just keeps getting better. He notched his second straight Grade 1 win in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland, making him 4-for-5 this season. Now, he’s right in the thick of the Eclipse race conversation. He will go next in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

4. Cogburn. He made a strong return in the Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs with another impressive victory. He remains undefeated this year, at 3-for-3 this season. Although it’s tough for a turf sprinter to claim an Eclipse Award, Stormy Liberal managed it in 2018 when the division lacked a standout. Can Cogburn do the same this year? The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint is next.

5. Measured Time. Made his return to the races in the Sword Dancer (G1) but was upset and finished as the runner-up to Far Bridge. In his only other U.S. start this season he dominated the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes day, marking his first Grade 1 win.

Next 5: Master of the Seas, Silver Knott, Nation’s Pride, Goliad, Win for the Money

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. I have no idea who to place up top here, so consider this gal a place holder. Any one of at least eight ranked here will have an opportunity to claim the Eclipse at the Breeders’ Cup, and even then this might not be decided until races after the Breeders’ Cup. War Like Goddess ran very well in the Joe Hirsch last out against the males when runner-up to Far Bridge. She hasn’t really slowed down even though she is now a 7-year-old. She has run well in all four of her starts this season, but has managed to win only once. Still, she is in the Eclipse mix. Will run in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Perhaps it all comes together for her this time around.

2. Anisette. She was disappointing in her last start, finishing third in the Mabee Stakes (G2) and missing her chance to claim the top spot in the division. Before that she cruised to an easy victory against an outclassed field in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. She’s 2-for-3 this season with her other win coming in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. She’s will run in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

3. Gina Romantica. Was super impressive last out in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, defeating Chili Flag and Whitebeam for her second win in this race in as many years. Gina has made a habit of showing up at Keeneland, winning a Grade 1 there three years in a row. She will take another shot at the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where she finished a respectable fourth last year.

4. Chili Flag. Rebounded from her last-out disappointment in the Diana (G1) to finish runner-up to Gina in the First Lady. The Just a Game (G1) winner on Belmont Stakes weekend deserves to reside in the top five. She too will run in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

5. Whitebeam.  She couldn’t have picked a worse time to throw in a clunker, finishing ninth in the First Lady when the spotlight was on her. That kind of performance knocked her out of the No. 1 spot. Just last month, she was on top of the world after winning the Diana against the deepest field of female turf horses we’ve seen this year. Before that, she was runner-up in two graded stakes, so it’s not like she’s been off her game. But that First Lady flop? I didn’t see that coming.

Next 5: Moira, Didia, Beaute Cachee, Hang the Moon, Full Count Felicia

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. Remains at the top despite his upset loss in the Pat O’Brien (G2), where he finished a close runner-up to Raging Torrent. It was his first defeat in six starts this season. By today’s standards his record is remarkable, with 19 wins from 25 starts and only two finishes off the board. Eighteen of those wins have come in stakes races. Now he is on the vet;s list at Del Mar and won’t be able to run in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, which is a huge blow to his Eclipse chances.

2. Mullikin. Like Elite Power a few years ago, this horse has emerged as a late-season star. He scored his first Grade 1 victory in the Forego at Saratoga after his first graded-stakes win in the Nerud (G2) at Aqueduct in July. Overall this 4-year-old colt by Violence is 5-for-9 in his career. The Breeders’ Cup Sprint is next.

3. Gun Pilot. Finished as runner-up to Mullikin in the Forego last time out and was third as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend. Earlier he notched his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). Will also run in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

4. Nakatomi. Upset last out in the Phoenix (G2), where he finished a distant runner-up. But he has shown in the past that he can rebound with big scores. He had a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga for his first victory of 2024. Before that, he ran third in both of his starts this season. He’ll be looking to improve on his third-place finish in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint this season.

5. Skelly. Runner-up to Nakatomi in the Vanderbilt two back and runner-up again in a listed stakes at Churchill Downs last out. He’s on a three-race losing streak, all second-place finishes. Despite the string of silver medals, I still think he’s a top-five player in this division. Will get a chance to right the ship in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Next 5: Raging Torrent, Straight No Chaser, Domestic Product, Federal Judge, Mufasa

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Disappointed as the favorite in the Ballerina (G1), finishing third behind Society. Before that she delivered an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Earlier she defeated Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a comfortable two-length victory after finishing runner-up to the same rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April. Still believe she is the horse to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

2. Society. Scored her first win of 2024 in a big one, defeating Vahva and Scylla in the Ballerina. In her only other start this season she was third to Vahva in the Chicago (G3). She’s back in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, looking to improve on her fourth-place finish from last year.

3. Ways and Means. Another win, this time against older in the Gallant Bloom (G2). Before this latest win she scored an impressive win in the Test (G1) for her first stakes win. I guess she is a major player in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she will face far tougher than she has ever faced before.

4. Sweet Azteca. Was stunningly off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth Stakes at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season winning four of her five starts. When she is on her game she is among the best in this division. Will miss the Breeders’ Cup.

5. Scylla. Runner-up in the Ballerina last out to Society after running in two-turn races. Has won two graded stakes this season. Her connections decided to opt for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint rather than the Distaff, believing that sprinting will suit her better than mixing it up with the big girls in a longer race.

Next 5: Zeitlos, Spirit Wind, Accede, Soul of an Angel, One Magic Philly

2-year-old males

1. Chancer McPatrick. I’m giving the nod to this guy over East Avenue. He already has two Grade 1 wins and is undefeated in three starts. Yes, he lacks early speed, but he sure does make things exciting turning for home. This McKinzie colt thrives coming from behind, and with all the speed expected on Breeders’ Cup day, the Juvenile should set up perfectly for him. His Champagne (G1) win at a mile was impressive, and it’s clear he’ll only improve as the distances get longer. Will vie with East Avenue for favoritism in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

2. East Avenue. He was nothing short of spectacular in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), going wire to wire for his second straight win. This Medaglia d’Oro colt has the early speed to burn, but come Breeders’ Cup time, he’ll face a handful of other front-runners. The question is, will anyone be fast enough to keep up? Right now, it looks like he might be too much for them all. And with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile shaping up to be one of the better editions we have seen in recent years, this showdown between the top two here could be one of the best of the Breeders’ Cup races.

3. Jonathan’s Way. One of the fastest 2-year-olds to have raced so far in the season, he won the Iroquois (G3) going wire to wire. He also is 2-for-2 in his career and is a major player in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

4. Citizen Bull. Another early speedster, he too scored a wire-to-wire win last out but his came in the American Pharoah (G1). This son of Into Mischief is 2-for-3 in his career, and he won his maiden from slightly off the pace. Also will run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

5. Ferocious. This highly regarded Flatter colt has been unable to match his explosive maiden win, settling for the runner-up spot in his last two starts in Grade 1 stakes, both as the favorite. Likely will be an underlay again in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Next 5: Gaming, Getaway Car, Showcase, Tip Top Thomas, Owen Almighty

2-year-old fillies

1. Immersive. This gal is a clear No. 1 right now, but she regressed in her last out Alcibiades (G1) win as far as speed figures are concerned. Not sure whether that’s a good thing or bad thing. Either way, despite her two Grade 1 wins already and her 3-for-3 career record, several others who will line up against her in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies have run faster. I’m skeptical she can make it 4-for-4 next out.

2. Scottish Lassie. Maybe it was the extra distance, but this filly came alive in the Frizette (G1), blowing away the field by nine lengths and clocking the fastest speed figures of anyone in the top 10. That was only her second career start after a third-place finish in a Saratoga maiden sprint. If this daughter of McKinzie runs like that again, she’ll be standing in the winner’s circle after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

3. Non Compliant. Now unbeaten in two starts, she made easy work of her first graded-stakes test in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, cruising past five rivals for the win. As a daughter of Tiz the Law, she already has pedigree on her side. And with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar, where she broke her maiden, she will have the home-track advantage next out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

4. Quickick. Another daughter of McKinzie, this gal finished runner-up behind Immersive in the Alcibiades. The Alcibiades was her first graded-stakes try after she broke her maiden in her second career start. Will try Immersive again in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

5. Vodka With a Twist. Gotta love seeing a 2-year-old filly with five starts under her belt already. This one’s 2-for-5, and although she hasn’t snagged a win in her last two outings, she’s been knocking on the door as runner-up in the Sorrento (G3) and Del Mar Debutante (G1). Consistent, but still waiting to land the big one. Will also join the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies party.

Next 5: Quietside, La Cara, Tenma, Nooni, With the Angels

Awesome Result poses a threat to crash the Distaff party