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topicnews · October 24, 2024

Predictions and 3 keys for Indiana’s football game against Washington

Predictions and 3 keys for Indiana’s football game against Washington

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The Big Ten has new friends on the West Coast: Oregon, Southern California, UCLA and Washington are now members of the 18-team league.

However, it looks like the Big Ten is bullying its new friends a bit when it comes to the football schedule. More specifically, they are the Big Ten’s TV partners.

Indiana plays Washington on Saturday at noon ET. No big deal for Indiana’s team and its fans. Lunch kickoffs are the norm.

But for the Huskies and the rest of the former Pac-12 schools, they are not the norm. For them it starts at 9 a.m. I’m sure Indiana fans are playing the slightest fiddle of compassion for Washington’s plight, but that’s unfair and unnecessary.

Saturday’s game will be broadcast on Big Ten Network. BTN also carries Northwestern-Iowa and Michigan State-Michigan in a tripleheader on Saturday, with the Battle of Michigan taking place in prime time.

Was there a good reason why the Indiana-Washington game at 12:00 pm ET couldn’t have been flipped with the Northwestern-Iowa game at 3:30 pm ET? People in the Central Time Zone are used to 11 a.m. kickoff times, just as people in the Eastern Time Zone are used to 12 p.m. kickoff times.

It’s not the first time West Coast Big Ten schools have been featured in the lunchtime slot. UCLA played in the same slot at Rutgers last weekend. The Bruins survived the early kickoff and defeated the Scarlet Knights 35-32. UCLA wasn’t so lucky when it played Penn State in a noon game on Oct. 5. The Nittany Lions won 27-11.

Washington, Indiana’s opponent on Saturday, played a noon game at Iowa on Oct. 12 and was defeated 40-16. Washington coach Jedd Fisch admitted this week that he underestimated the travel and time adjustments and has made adjustments this week in preparation for the Hoosiers.

It just seems strange to me that the West Coast teams are being put in the lunchtime slot. Things can’t be good for TV ratings on the West Coast. Expanding the league’s television audience was one of the main reasons West Coast schools were attractive to the Big Ten in the first place. So why bother with it? It seems elementary to me that schools on the West Coast should open at 3:30 p.m. or later if possible.

Again, I’m sure Indiana fans couldn’t care less, but noon kickoffs involving West Coast schools are an unfair advantage to schools in the Central and Eastern time zones. It’s one thing that the Big Ten schools and their TV partners should reach a fair agreement next year.

Here are three keys and a prediction for the Washington game:

1. Maximize Tayven Jackson’s skills

Tayven Jackson

Indiana’s Tayven Jackson (2) passes during the Indiana vs. Nebraska football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I’m not worried about whether Tayven Jackson can play the quarterback position. He played very well in Kurtis Rourke’s place in the second half last week, completing 7 of 8 passes for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns. In games where Jackson attempted at least eight passes, he had by far the best QB rating of his career.

What I’m worried about are the plays that are so important to Indiana and are uniquely controlled by Rourke. He’s a great RPO quarterback, but I’m not too worried about that with Jackson because he’s a run threat, which should make him effective.

What Rourke does, and I’m not sure Jackson has proven he can do it with the same consistency, is these surgical low throws. Two receptions come to mind from last week’s game against Nebraska. Rourke is very good at being precise on the mid-deep sideline patterns where Elijah Sarratt curls up to make a sizable gain, often on third down. These back-and-shoulder throws are a Rourke specialty.

Rourke is also very good at placing a deep ball just high enough for his receiver to play it, but out of the defender’s reach. Witness Omar Cooper Jr.’s 36-yard catch last week. He made a great effort to catch the pass and the coverage was good, but Rourke’s pass could not have been caught by anyone but Cooper. It was high, but in a good way.

Can Jackson do these things? I think he can, but can he execute them with the same consistency? I’m not so sure about that. So I hope the game plan is tailored to ensure Jackson’s strengths are prioritized.

2. Make Jonah Coleman pay an early price

Jonah Coleman

Washington Huskies running back Jonah Coleman (1) rushes for a touchdown over Michigan Wolverines defensive back Brandyn Hillman (6) in the fourth quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Washington running back Jonah Coleman is quietly having a strong season for the Huskies. He ranks fourth in the league with 681 yards rushing and is also tied for fourth with a whopping 6.9 yards per carry. He averages nearly 97.3 yards per game.

Believe it or not, he is the first top-10 Big Ten rusher the Hoosiers have faced this season. In fact, he is the first Top 17 Big Ten rushers they faced. Maryland’s Roman Hemby (18th in the Big Ten) is the most productive back Indiana has seen in conference play this season. It’s hard to believe when November approaches.

No team stopped Coleman from getting into a rhythm. Even in Iowa’s 40-16 win on Oct. 12, Coleman still managed 80 yards against a strong Hawkeyes defense.

Indiana’s defense needs to set the tone. For example, if Coleman can be held to three yards or less on his first five carries, that’s a good way to give Washington doubt that he can be as effective as he has been.

3. Keep Washington doubtful in the red zone

offense in Washington.

Iowa’s Xavier Nwankpa (1) takes on Washington wide receiver Denzel Boston (12) with the help of two teammates on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. / Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Washington ranks seventh in the Big Ten in red zone chances with 28. However, the Huskies rank 16th in the league in converting those chances, failing to score seven times.

Indiana was good at keeping opponents from scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The Hoosiers have allowed their opponents 8 touchdowns in 15 red zone opportunities. That’s tied for third place in the Big Ten. This is also a big reason Indiana hasn’t trailed in any games this season.

It’s a pattern that must continue on Saturday.

forecast

Last week I was too conservative in my choice and promised not to hold back if given another chance. This was written before the extent of Rourke’s injury was fully known, but I still think Indiana has enough to control this contest on home soil.

Indiana’s running game will be strong, Jackson will be in control of the passing game, and Washington will have difficulty breaking down a commanding defense. Indiana will win 31-10 on Saturday.