Washington State vs. SDSU: Match Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Key, Prediction

The Aztecs have a lot to gain as their hometown is upset by future PAC-12 conference mates – the Washington State Cougars.

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The last time SDSU opened a football season with a 1-3 record in 2015, they won the next 10 games.

WEEK 8: WSU Cougars (6-1, 0-0 PAC) vs. SDSU Aztecs (3-3, 2-0 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 7:30 p.m. PST / 10:30 p.m. EST

WHERE: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California (35,000)

TV: CBSSN

STREAMING: CBS Sports Network stream

RADIO: San Diego Sports 760

SERIAL RECORDING: The Aztecs are 1-1 against the Cougars.

LAST MATCH: September 17, 2011. SDSU won 42-24 at home.

SITES: GoAztecs.com, San Diego State’s official athletics website; WSUCougars.com, the official Washington State athletics website.

OPPORTUNITIES: Washington State -14

OVER/UNDER: 56.5

San Diego, California – On Saturday evening, October 26th, coach Jake Dickert and the Washington State Cougars (6-1) visit Snapdragon Stadium in Mission Valley to coach Sean Lewis and the well-rested SDSU Aztecs (3-3). The Aztecs, coming off a second bye week, are expected to lose by two touchdowns, but coach Dickert knows SDSU is a wild card with a projected 19% chance of winning.

The new-look Aztecs opened their season with a disappointing 1-3 record before winning back-to-back conference games against Hawaii and Wyoming. The last time SDSU opened a football season with a 1-3 record in 2015, they won the next 10 games. The wins included a 27-24 victory over Air Force in the Mountain West Championship game, followed by a 42-7 victory over Cincinnati in the Hawai’i Bowl.

This meeting marks the first time SDSU and the Cougars will face each other in thirteen years, since the Aztecs won 42-24 on September 17, 2011 at Qualcomm Stadium. WSU won their first ever meeting on September 8, 2007, 45-17 at Qwest Field in Seattle. Going forward, games between these teams will be held annually, and in 2026, SDSU will officially become a PAC-12 conference partner of Wazzu.

The Aztecs are expected to finish eighth in the Mountain West in 2024, but right now they are undefeated in conference play. Coach Lewis’ Aztecs are picking up pace calmly and consistently. Saturday’s game could really get SDSU going if they can get the win. Let’s take a closer look at what it will take for the Aztecs to win.

Key to a San Diego State win

1. Defensive picks

The Cougars didn’t activate their running game the way Coach Dickert expected. Against Hawaii last week, the talented true freshman got stuck Wayshawn Parker had just 25 yards rushing in nine games after having at least one rush of more than 20 yards in every other game this season.

The running game is a work in progress, so the Cougars rely heavily on the quarterback John Mateer who has thrown six interceptions this season.

For an aggressive defense like the Aztecs with an impressive secondary, that means 1-2 interceptions are more than possible. If some of those are converted to pick-sixes, those defensive touchdowns would negate the big advantage Wazzu expects. Currently, the Aztecs are 6-0 when the defense scores a touchdown. If that happens, Wazzu should be worried.

2. Take down Mateer

Mateer has solid stats. He threw for 1,896 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s been sacked 20 times, suggesting he’s waiting for the right play – even if it doesn’t come.

The Aztecs’ heavy pressure on Mateer will throw him off balance and lead to rushed plays that result in lost yards and off-center passes at critical moments that could be intercepted more effectively. If things get heated and he’s prevented from finding a rhythm, that will have a big impact on this game.

Mateer’s vulnerability to sack attacks complements Aztec EDGE Trey Whites NCAA-leading ability to shut down signal-callers.

White is having a killer season. With 11 sacks in six games, including 10.5 in the last four, he is averaging 1.83 sacks per game. If he can maintain that rate this season, it would be an NCAA FBS record.

White was added Bednarik Award Watchlist for Most Outstanding Defensive Player and was named to five midseason All-America teams. As a team, the Aztecs rank second in the country with 4.17 sacks per game. White’s 1.83 sacks per game is higher than 47 other FBS teams, including Arizona, BYU, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Washington State, UCLA and USC, among others. As of this writing, White leads the country in sacks per game (1.83), tackles for loss (15.0), tackles for loss per game (2.50), and tackles for loss yards (91). ranked first in overall sacks (11.0) and ranked third in sack yards (60). Keeping Mateer on his heels also means disrupting Wazzu’s leading rusher with 533 yards and 8 touchdowns this season. The Aztecs have to remember that he’s a major escape risk if they pick up the bag and get him.

3. AIR ATTACK

True freshman Aztec quarterback Danny O’Neil is a work in progress that continually improves with every game. He has proven to be a reliable ball handler, managing just one interception (off a tipped ball) all season. O’Neil has also shown he can drop a dime in critical moments, most recently with back-to-back long passes Jordan Napier in Laramie, providing much-needed game-changing aerial momentum.

4. LIMIT PENALTIES

The Aztecs won’t beat strong opponents if they don’t play with discipline.

What will happen?

The Aztecs are expected to lose by two touchdowns. SDSU will be rested and playing on its home field. If the defense can shut down the Cougars and if Mateer adds to his collection of sacks, this game may be closer than expected. A slowed Wazzu offense coupled with a high-scoring SDSU defense could make this a one-possession game. If the Aztecs get two interceptions with at least one pick-six, the Aztecs could come out of this matchup with a win. Most likely, the Cougars will win by four in a game that will be closer than expected.

Washington State 28, San Diego State 24