Oregon vs. Illinois Score Prediction by an Expert Football Model

A new look for Big Ten football begins on the West Coast when newly ranked Oregon returns home to face No. 20 Illinois in Week 9 of college football. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects results and picks winners.

Oregon moved to 4-0 in Big Ten play after knocking out Purdue on the road last week and still has the one-point win over Ohio State in hand as it heads to the playoffs this season.

Illinois is 3-1 in conference play after a win over Michigan a week ago, but isn’t getting much confidence from the models or the bookies against the high-powered Ducks squad.

What does the analysis suggest when the Ducks and Illini meet in this Big Ten matchup?

To do this, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Oregon and Illinois will fare in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the models clearly favor the Ducks over the Illini.

SP+ predicts Oregon will beat Illinois by a margin of a expected score 37 to 17 and win the game as expected A lead of 20.4 points.

The model gives the Ducks a strong feel 90 percent chance of the overall victory in the game.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a win rate of 52.1 after being 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Oregon is a 22 point favorite against Illinois, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total below 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -2000 and for Illinois at +1000 win directly.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

According to the latest spread consensus recommendations for the game, most bettors follow this site.

Illinois gets a strong majority 71 percent of betting on either winning the game in an upset or, more likely, keeping the score within the generous limit.

The other one 29 percent of bets assume the Ducks will win the game and cover the spread.

Oregon was 8.3 points better than his opponents when playing at home this season.

And that average has increased for the Ducks 19 points better than the opponent in the last three games overall.

Illinois has proven it 3.5 points worse than its opponents in away games in 2024.

Although this grade is improving 0.3 points better than the opponents in the last three games.

Oregon is 19.3 points better than opponents overall this season, while Illinois is 5.8 points better than its competition in 2024.

Other analysis models also give the Ducks good chances against the Illini.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Oregon is expected to win the game by overpowering 91.4 percent the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining game 8.6 percent by Sims.

Oregon is expected to be 21.1 points better than Illinois on the same field in the current makeup of both teams, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Oregon is the first of the Big Ten teams with one 86.6 percent chance according to FPI metrics to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

This model gives the Ducks an overall win prediction of 11.4 games this season.

Illinois has one 6.2 percent shot According to the Index’s calculations, there is a chance of making it into the 12-team playoffs.

This includes an overall profit forecast of 8.4 games in ’24 for the Illini.

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 2:30pm CT | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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