What to Expect in Montana on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — When Montana voters cast their ballots in the Nov. 5 general election, they will decide what could be the country’s primary race in the U.S. Senate and, by extension, perhaps which party will win the closely divided chamber in the next one Congress will control. They will also vote on a high-profile ballot question on abortion as well as less competitive races for president and governor.

Democrats control the U.S. Senate by a majority of 51-49. With Republicans almost certain to take retiring former Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, a GOP victory in Montana would make it difficult for Democrats to to maintain their majority regardless of who wins the presidency.

Democratic incumbent Jon Tester faces a tough re-election fight for a fourth term against Republican Tim Sheehy. As one of only two Senate Democrats running for re-election in a state that former President Donald Trump easily won in 2020, Tester is a perennial target for Republicans. He won his last three races with 49% to 50% of the vote.

Tester has spent $71 million on the race since early October, compared with about $11 million for Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL who loaned his campaign $2.5 million. Outside groups have poured additional millions into the race.

Montana is also one of 10 states that will put a ballot question on abortion before voters in November. The measure, officially known as “Constitutional Initiative No. 128,” would enshrine a right to abortion before fetal viability in the state constitution.

At the top of the ballot, the presidential race is significantly less competitive. The last Democrat to win Montana in a presidential election was Bill Clinton in 1992, although Barack Obama came close in 2008. Trump won Montana with 57% of the vote in 2016 and 2020, and Democrats have yet to set foot in the state this year. Tester skipped the Democratic convention in August and refused to endorse Harris despite Sheehy’s attempts to link the senator to his party’s presidential nominee.

In the race for governor, Republican incumbent Greg Gianforte faces Democrat Ryan Busse.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 elections in Montana:

election day

November 5th.

Survey closing time

10 p.m. ET.

Presidential election votes

4 awarded to the national winner.

Important races and candidates

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We the People) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).

US Senate: Tester (D) vs. Sheehy (R) and two others.

Governor: Governor Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Ryan Busse (D) and another.

Ballot measures: Constitutional Amendment 126 (the first four primaries), Constitutional Amendment 127 (majority required to win the election), Constitutional Amendment 128 (right to abortion).

Other interesting breeds

U.S. House of Representatives, Attorney General, Auditor General, Secretary of State, Superintendent of Public Instruction, State Supreme Court, Clerk of the State Supreme Court, State Senate, State House of Representatives, and Civil Service Commission.

Decision notes

Technically, Montana is not one of the states where elections are held primarily by mail, but quite a few Montanans still choose to vote this way. In the 2018 midterm elections, about three-quarters of all votes cast were cast by mail. In the 2020 general election, the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, this number rose to 98%.

State law allows election officials to begin processing and verifying mail-in ballots up to three days before Election Day. The machine counting of mail-in ballots can begin the day before Election Day.

In the 2020 U.S. Senate race, about 76% of votes were registered as of 2 a.m. ET and 89% as of 6 a.m. ET.

In statewide elections, Republicans tend to win the populous Yellowstone (home of Billings) and Flathead counties by comfortable margins, while winning about 30 small, rural counties by large margins. Regardless of whether they win or lose statewide, Democrats typically represent at least six counties, ranging from large (Missoula, population 117,922) to small (Deer Lodge, population 9,421). Presidents Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton led these six counties despite losing by 16 and 20 percentage points statewide, respectively. Biden took over a seventh small county, Blaine.

Two Democrats who won statewide in recent elections, Tester in 2018 and former Gov. Steve Bullock in 2016, both carried 13 counties: the seven 2020 Biden counties, plus Hill, Roosevelt, Lake, Lewis & Clark (Home of the State of Helena). Capital City), Cascade (home of the Great Falls) and Park.

Of these, the results of the high-voting Lewis & Clark and Cascade parties on election night are likely to be the most revealing. Both Tester and Bullock led Lewis & Clark with about 60% of the vote. Biden received about 47% of the vote and Clinton received about 42%. Cascade is harder. Tester and Bullock received 51% and 54% there, respectively, compared to mid-to-high 30% for Biden and Clinton. When Bullock lost the 2020 U.S. Senate race to Republican Steve Daines, he stuck with Lewis & Clark but lost Cascade by double digits. He also lost Hill, Lake and Park counties.

Warning signs for Tester on election night would be a Lewis & Clark loss or win there with closer to 50% than 60% of the vote, or if he loses Cascade or falls below about 60% in the Democratic stronghold of Missoula.

The Associated Press does not make predictions and will declare a winner only after determining that there is no scenario that would allow the final candidates to close the gap. If no race has been called, the AP will continue to report any major developments, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not declared a winner and explain why.

If there is a tie, a recount takes place automatically in Montana. Candidates can request a recount if the vote margin is less than 0.25% of the total vote, or less than 0.5% if the candidate pays for it. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine that the margin is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the result.

Past presidential results

2020: Trump (R) 57%, Biden (D) 41%, AP Race Call: Wednesday, November 4, 2020, 12:20 a.m. ET.

Voter registration and turnout

Registered voters: 782,176 (as of October 16, 2024).

Voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election: 80% of registered voters.

Voting before election day

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: approximately 98% of the total votes.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: approximately 81% of the total votes.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote Tracker.

How long does it take to count the votes?

First votes reported, November 3, 2020: 10:06 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: About 50% of all votes cast have been reported.

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