Who is likely to win the 2024 presidential election?

The final 538 forecast for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is officially released and it’s a real thrill. Our model gives Harris one XXX out of 100 Chance of winning a majority of Electoral College votes. Our model gives Trump one XXX out of 100 Chance.

The model shifted slightly toward Harris on Monday, Nov. 4, after high-quality polls released over the weekend showed her tied or ahead in the key northern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls from more frequently surveyed but less respected companies had shown the race leaning toward Trump, but also moving in Harris’ direction on Monday.

However, a close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the result will be close. All seven swing states are still within normal polling error of the candidate currently “losing” in each. While the polls suggest a close race, our model shows what you can expect if these polls are wrong.

538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals” such as: B. economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. The point is not to name a winner, but to give you an idea of ​​how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

-G. Elliott Morris