Trump's missile announcement offers Ukraine important

London
Cnn
–

Donald Trump's statements about Ukraine on Monday were far from the greatest announcement that the US President could have done.

The good news for Kyiv is known. Trump has allowed the other NATO members to buy American weapons – a wide range of them, it seems. Contain the urgently needed Patriot interceptor rockets and the batteries that fire you fire. Trump even suggested to “save” in a NATO nation 17.

Whatever the exact reality of the arms package NATO delivers, exactly what Trump suggested on the weekend and exactly what Ukraine needs. The nightly flood of Russian ballistic rockets can only be stopped by US patriot rockets, and only the White House can approve its care. Ukraine was not of these and other demanding American weapons, which may not be referred to and may be included in the deal. This is at short notice, important relief.

But the stab for Ukraine comes in what was not announced: immediate secondary sanctions against customers of Russian energy that could significantly empty the health insurance funds of Moscow. The sanction scope proposed by a draft law in the US Senate – possibly 500% for the entire trade with those who buy Russian hydrocarbons – would have been devastating.

And these sanctions would hit China and India – the main competitor of the USA or the most important allies – at a time when oil prices are low, but trade turbulence is high. The damage to the energy markets would have been noticeable, and the United States would also have been affected by probably higher oil prices. However, this is a significant delay, together with the somewhat toothless threat from sanctions against Russia itself (there is almost no trade to punish).

Vladimir Putin give fifty days until September, so that Trump has changed his opinion, or with it the rumored summer offensive of the Russian president can change the reality of the battlefield in such a way that Putin is happy to freeze in conflict. It creates a window in which Neu -Delhi and Beijing can try to decouple themselves from Russian energy – because of their dependency and the way it would be complex – or maybe put pressure on Moscow to end the war. This is also a difficult question of Beijing, whose civil servants recently pointed out that Moscow does not lose the conflict without risking the United States to turn their full attention to his rivalry with China.

The deadline also shows that Trump does not have to give up the most difficult invention of his Ukraine policy: that the Kremlin actually wants to peace and still has to be adequately convinced of it. Trump had another deadline to bring Russia into a deal. We have been here before and Putin had the ticking watch crossed via his ear.

However, it is important to confiscate Trump's change of sound – mood music may be the more continued reference to the policy of the White House than the specified details. There was a meaningful moment when Trump Putin did not call Putin as an assassin, and paints a picture of a white house in which the First Lady often reminds him of how violent Kyiv is hit by Russians.

The US President gave himself wild through all the seasons of Putin – his spring that peace was possible, a short summer of diplomacy in Golf and Istanbul, a fall of the manure relationships, and now the same winter was dissatisfied dissatisfied, the President Joe Bidens was standard position. But after six months in which Russian diplomacy – its synthetic and performative nature in combination with cynical, maximum demands – has still not given up his muscles, Trump still has not given up talking about the Kremlin in order to voluntarily stop his existential war of choice.

Trump also spared some of the tougher options that are available to him. No new American money goes to Ukraine, and we have not heard of new skills that are delivered.

Trump's Ukraine policy may be changed in the mood, but keeps important elements from the past. A wish for anyone except the USA to take the bill on foot; Deadlines for actions and non -direct consequences for inactivity; And an astonishing belief, the Kremlin wants peace.

Kyiv will be relieved immediately, but will soon also feel a familiar feeling of disappointment.