Poll shows criminal justice reform will be a crucial issue in the 2024 election

By Stacy M. Brownsenior national correspondent for NNPA Newswire
As America heads toward its most consequential presidential election in recent memory, criminal justice reform has emerged as a potential game-changer. A new poll finds that reducing incarceration sentences has broad bipartisan support. The poll, conducted by BSG for FWD.us, shows that 81% of likely voters support criminal justice reform, including 85% of Democrats, 82% of Independents and 76% of Republicans. Voters in key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania overwhelmingly support reform, positioning the issue as a potentially deciding factor in the 2024 presidential race.

Zoë Towns, executive director of FWD.us, discussed the survey results during an appearance on Black Press. Let it be known digital show. The cities emphasized that personal experiences with mass incarceration are a key motivator for voters’ support for reform. “Voters across the political spectrum have been overexposed to the harms of mass incarceration for decades,” Towns said. “One in two Americans have experienced incarceration within their immediate family – this is not just a political issue, it is a lived experience. And the exposure rate is the same whether you’re a Republican or a Democratic household.”

Towns pointed out that this shared experience of mass incarceration is why support for reform transcends partisan divides. “The harm of mass incarceration is bipartisan,” she said. “And the support for reform that we see is also bipartisan. People have seen that we don’t have to lock our way out of all these problems – we can have security and justice at the same time.”

The poll shows that two-thirds of Black voters (67%) and a majority of Latino voters (55%) are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports criminal justice reform, further underscoring the importance of the issue in shaping voter behavior among key demographic groups . “You have voters who are excited about reform, you have evidence that it works, and you have evidence that it helps the economy and keeps families together,” Towns added.

Despite overwhelming public support, both major presidential candidates — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump — have not yet fully addressed the issue in their campaigns. Cities see this as a missed opportunity. “In such a close election, criminal justice reform is a completely wasted opportunity for both candidates,” she said. “We have voters across the board — Democrats, Republicans, independents — who are demanding these reforms. So why not meet her there?”

The cities noted that some reforms, such as pardons, have proven particularly popular, particularly among Black and Latino communities. “Grace is extremely important,” she said. “The Obama-era clemency initiative brought nearly 2,000 people home from federal prisons, sparing them an average of 10 years in prison. Voters want President Biden to do something similar in his final months. Grace can bring families back together and is an essential component of true public safety.”

In fact, the poll shows that 72% of likely voters now believe it is critical to reduce the U.S. prison population, a significant increase from 65% in February 2024. Among Black voters, that number rises to 80%, Among Latinos, 74% Voters also say reducing incarceration is critical.

When asked about the continued use of tough-on-crime rhetoric, Towns explained that while such messages have been a staple of politics for years, voters are now seeing through them. “In every U.S. election that has been studied, the cheapest way to get votes was to make people afraid of the ballot box — whether because of fear of immigration, crime or foreign influence,” Towns said. “But now voters are watching those old tough-on-crime commercials alongside an alternative experience. Maybe their brother or their mother is locked up and they say, ‘Wait a minute, that’s not reality.’ Voters want real solutions, not scaremongering.”

The poll shows that more voters (65%) believe mass incarceration causes many of the problems that create unsafe communities, such as homelessness, poverty and drug or mental health problems, than did earlier in the campaign season. “We know what works to promote safe communities,” Towns said. “There is a lot of evidence about what reduces violence and drug use. But politics has been playing with people’s safety for far too long.”

The cities also addressed the legacy of the 1994 Crime Act, a controversial law that continues to shape public perceptions of criminal justice reform. “The 1994 crime bill was a punitive reform package that disproportionately harmed Black and Latino communities,” she said. “It built the federal prison system and left us with laws that still affect people today. Many of those convicted under these laws are still incarcerated, and their families and loved ones are voters – bringing those experiences to the ballot box.”

Melissa Morales, founder and president of Somos Votantes, underscored the importance of reforms for Latino voters. “We cannot continue the cycle of mass incarceration that has separated so many Latino families and eclipsed real public safety solutions,” Morales said in a statement.

Similarly, Pennsylvania House Speaker Joanna McClinton noted that criminal justice reform is a critical issue in battleground states. “When I talk to voters in Pennsylvania, criminal justice reform comes up again and again,” McClinton said. “We know it is the right policy and this poll shows that the policy is on our side.”

The poll also shows that candidates can gain significant political traction through their support for criminal justice reform. Nationally, voters are five times more likely to support a candidate who supports reform than one who does not. The trend is even more pronounced in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, where the ratio is six to one.

As the election approaches, Towns said she believes criminal justice reform is a low-risk, high-reward issue for candidates. “This is an extremely close election, and it will come down to a small number of votes in a small number of states,” Towns said. “Criminal justice reform is a game-changing issue—and there is little downside to supporting it.” Watch the full discussion here.