Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Will trading DeAndre Hopkins get Patrick Mahomes ready to go again?

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have very little time to observe and analyze a player’s performance. But fear not—Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be—if at all.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes was drafted as the QB1 in many fantasy leagues, but this season he was the QB22 in points per game. He posted the worst NFL passer rating (44.4) of any game of his career on Sunday, and it’s been more than a full calendar year since he finished a week better than QB9. Mahomes is somehow the current MVP favorite despite a 6:8 INT ratio and leads the league in interceptions.

Since losing Rashee Rice, Kansas City’s dropback rate is above expectations at a low -5%, making the Chiefs one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. In fact, Kareem Hunt ranks first in touches per game (22.7). Volume will continue to be an issue, and Mahomes is also just QB19 in fantasy points per dropback. His average intended air yards (5.4) rank last out of 39 qualified QBs this season.

Rookie Xavier Worthy doesn’t appear ready to contribute as a route runner, so the Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins, who will take over for JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring). Hopkins is undoubtedly an improvement, but the 32-year-old likely won’t have much of an impact on Mahomes’ fantasy value – although others see the move as a boost.

Kansas City can continue to win with the help of a dominant defense and the same formula in the future, so Mahomes’ fantasy value needs to be reevaluated.

Subscribe Yahoo Fantasy Prediction To Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Last week, Richardson continued to panic managers with erratic accuracy and a lack of imaginative scoring chances. On defense, Richardson faced a Miami defense that allowed quarterbacks an NFL-low 154.5 passing yards per game and the fewest fantasy points this season. Managers probably don’t care about excuses, but Richardson has tied with the No. 1, No. 2, No. 5 and No. 11 defenses in QB fantasy points allowed since Week 1 (while Joe Flacco is a match against the No. 32 Jaguars).

AR goes on the road to face the Houston D, which has the second-fewest YPA (6.2) this week, followed by a Brian Flores defense in Minnesota, but both the Texans and Vikings are tied for last this season 12 of the QB fantasy points allowed.

Encouragingly, Richardson recorded a season-high nine designed runs in his comeback last week, and he has the fourth-most rush attempts inside the five among all QBs while playing nearly three fewer games than some others. More rushing scores to come.

And judging by his admittedly poor accuracy (it looks like he’s definitely ahead on short and intermediate passes at the moment), it’s worth noting that the ugly completion percentage comes with a YPA of 7.8, which is Joe’s Burrow and Josh Allen are seventh best in the league. Additionally, the difference between Richardson’s average intended air yards (12.2) and the QB with the second highest (Brock Purdy at 9.9). as wide as #2 and #18therefore, context needs to be added. Richardson’s sack rate (3.8%) is the third-lowest in the NFL and he has posted the second-most rush yards above expectations and EPA (expected points added) per scramble.

AR is the QB13 in fantasy points per dropback (just behind Burrow and miles ahead of Mahomes and Stroud), despite the toughest schedule in the league and an incredible inaccuracy that should regress (a healthy Josh Downs will help).

Richardson’s floor is low for a number of reasons, but his massive fantasy potential remains and will be much easier to achieve with a more favorable schedule. Don’t cut the bait yet.

CJ Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

Stroud was the QB18 in fantasy points per game this season, just ahead of Bo Nix (who is averaging 178.0 passing yards and has five TD passes in seven games). Stroud’s expectations were high entering the second year and Houston added Stefon Diggs and a healthy Tank Dell, but the QB was a major disappointment. Stroud is coming off the worst game of his career (-14.8 CPOE), when he was pressured more than ever before and the most of any QB in any game this season.

It may or may not matter going forward, but Stroud has experienced dramatic breaks in the first 22 games of his career. He has 8.7 YPA and averaged 311.1 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes at home, but he has 7.0 YPA and averaged 213.5 passing yards with just 12 touchdowns on the road. OC Bobby Slowik routinely calls runs on early downs as Houston has a -2% PROE (Pass Rate Above Expected).

Stroud will certainly perform better and could have a big game at home against the Colts this week. But he will still be missing Nico Collins and will have to contend with a poor offensive line and shaky coaching. There is additional risk in drafting early quarterbacks who don’t run, and Stroud is the latest example.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njiga was the WR49 in fantasy points per game this season despite scoring the ninth-most goals (55) in the league. The volume was there for JSN, but his role continues to be disappointing; He ranks 59th in air yards percentage (21.8%) and 78th in average target distance (7.8). Smith-Njigba has the 11th-worst yards per route run and ranks 61st in 1D/RR (first downs per route run). He is technically “due” for a touchdown regression, but some of that underperformance can be attributed to him.

However, Geno Smith leads the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards, and Seattle leads the league by far in WR fantasy usage. Additionally, DK Metcalf is dealing with an MCL sprain week to week, so JSN has more chances; Let’s hope that includes more passes downfield.

The Smith-Njigba panic gets a brief reprieve with Metcalf sidelined, but there are serious long-term concerns about his upside.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Smith was the WR25 in fantasy points per game, so he was hardly a bust. But he recorded negative receiving yards last week during a game without Dallas Goedert. Smith’s performance has peaked in the past when Goedert wasn’t on the field, and there’s no question he also benefited from AJ Brown’s absence earlier this season. Brown has dominated the air yards percentage (62%) when both receivers have run routes together this year, while Smith’s percentage has dropped to just 14%. The addition of Saquon Barkley has also depleted Smith in volume, as Philadelphia’s new defenseman ranks in the top five in touches per game (20.7).

Smith will get his spot, but given his diminished role in the offense, some panic is understandable.