3 players, 2 matchups and 1 prediction for UVA Football vs. UNC

The Virginia Cavaliers (4-3) are four-point favorites as they host the North Carolina Tar Heels (3-4) at noon Saturday. Virginia is coming off a 48-31 loss at Clemson (they covered the spread in wild fashion), where their defense gave up a total of 539 yards and 31 points in the second half.

Although the game turned into a blowout, UVA fought until the end, with senior Ethan Davies scoring his first career touchdown with less than two minutes to play, taking a pass from Tony Muskett 65 yards to the house.

North Carolina has lost four straight games, including its last three ACC games and a notable 70-50 loss to JMU. They have been affected by the run all season, most recently with Georgia Tech running back Jamal Haynes managing to rush for 170 yards and two touchdowns on just 19 attempts.

The ‘Hoos need to win on Saturday to maintain their bowl game aspirations, as that is likely the only remaining game on Virginia’s schedule in which they will be favored.

It has all the makings of a back-and-forth, high-scoring contest where quarterback Anthony Colandrea will have to limit his mistakes and make some explosive plays for the Cavaliers to escape with the win.

Here are three matchups, two players to watch and a prediction for Saturday’s game in Charlottesville.

Time: Saturday, October 26th, 12:00 pm EST

Regard: The CW

Three players to watch

RB Omarion Hampton

Hampton is not only North Carolina’s most explosive player, he is also one of the best running backs in the country. The junior back has rushed for 901 yards and seven touchdowns in seven games this season, ranking fourth in all of Division 1 in rushing yards. It’s no coincidence either, as Hampton ran for 1,504 yards and 15 touchdowns as a sophomore.

He’s expected to be drafted in the second or third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and he could be the second running back off the board (definitely behind only Heisman favorite Ashton Jeanty of Boise State). The tape definitely confirms the numbers.

He has the perfect blend of size, speed and power required of NFL defensive backs. He is a force between the tackles and runs downhill with force. If the Cavaliers’ linebackers and safeties throw lazy arm tackles at him, he will punish them. Just look at that run against Clemson from last year.

DE Kaimon Rucker

Kaimon Rucker, who was recently named a semifinalist for the Jason Witten Collegiate Man of the Year Award, is a true stud on and off the field. The senior defensive end is coming off the 2023 season (haha) in which he recorded 61 tackles and 8.5 sacks, earning him a second-team All-ACC nomination.

Rucker suffered a lower-body injury after Week 1 of the 2024 season and only returned to action two weeks ago in a match against Georgia Tech. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound lineman has had several weeks to rest and recover, and he should be back at the helm of the Tar Heels defense on Saturday.

He is exceptionally quick at the snap and constantly penetrates the backfield to disrupt running plays and pressure the quarterback on passing plays. He is a problem against bigger tackles with slower feet because his favorite move is a simple speed rush on the outside, where he releases the snap and goes deep to slip past the offensive linemen. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rucker came away with a game-winning sack or two or a big tackle in Saturday’s game.

QB Jacoby Criswell

It goes without saying that the opposing quarterback is always a player to keep an eye on, and the Tar Heels’ graduate transfer QB from Arkansas is no different.

He has had a fascinating career. Criswell spent his first three seasons at UNC before transferring to Arkansas in 2023 to become their backup quarterback and then moving back to North Carolina, where he started this season ranked third on the depth chart. Criswell got the opportunity to play a few weeks after starter Max Johnson suffered a season-ending leg injury, and it appears he has now won the starting job for the foreseeable future.

He impressed with 1,367 yards and eight touchdowns in five games, but his 56.1 completion percentage and three interceptions show why he began the season as a backup.

Criswell certainly isn’t on the level of the last few UNC quarterbacks UVA has faced – Drake Maye and Sam Howell – but he has a strong arm and isn’t afraid to sling the ball down the field. In his first official game as a starter, he threw for 475 yards against JMU. Virginia needs to pressure Criswell and force him to make some mistakes, because if he is able to pick apart the UVA secondary, running back Omarion Hampton should have a field day.

Two matchups

Virginia’s run defense against Omarion Hampton

I don’t need to reiterate how good running back Omarion Hampton is, but it’s worth noting that Virginia’s run defense has been a bit questionable this season. Sometimes the defensive ends do a good job of setting up the lead and linebacker Kam Robinson and safety Jonas Sanker fly in to make tackles near the line of scrimmage, but other times running backs get ten yards downfield before a Cavalier Defender touched her at all.

Louisville exposed Virginia’s run defense as running back Isaac Brown racked up 146 yards and two touchdowns, rushing through holes wider than Beta Bridge. Last week, Clemson’s Phil Mafah proved too strong between the tackles for Virginia’s defense, rushing for 78 yards and also scoring two scores.

Omarion Hampton is on a whole different level, so UVA might be forced to load some boxes against him to slow him down. Above all, it will require a team effort to tackle the whole thing. The ‘Hoos are prone to big plays on the ground and in the air and won’t be able to afford many missed tackles against Hampton.

Anthony Colandrea against UNC’s secondary

We’re halfway through the season and I don’t know what to think about quarterback Anthony Colandrea. There’s no denying that he’s fun to watch, but he still struggles with inconsistencies that plagued him as a rookie.

UNC’s secondary is nothing special, and recent history against the Tar Heels shows us that Colandrea should be prepared for a high-volume, pass-heavy approach. He needs to be efficient, limit big mistakes and rely on connections with reliable weapons like Malachi Fields and Tyler Neville. Add in some big QB struggles and Virginia’s offense will be hard to stop.

A prediction

I still believe Tony Elliott will take Virginia to a bowl game this season, and they need a win this week for me to feel confident in that prediction.

It seems as if the South’s oldest rivalry has devolved into a series of high-scoring shootouts over the past five years, with no defense fighting back and quarterbacks throwing the ball all over the field. It’s not always pretty, but it makes for entertaining football and I think that trend will continue.

Virginia will do its best to slow UNC’s ferocious rush by bending but not completely breaking. On offense, Anthony Colandrea will have a career day with over 300 passing yards and four total touchdowns. The ‘Hoos will pull away in the fourth quarter and win by double digits.

Prediction: Virginia 43, UNC 31