Reassessing the opponents remaining on Ohio State’s 2024 football schedule

Every college football season is different. There are always surprises when teams perform better or worse than expected. Almost every blog and media outlet does some sort of power ranking or prediction in the preseason, trying to predict how conferences like the Big Ten will perform by the end of the season. Some go even further and try to predict every game on a team’s schedule.

Therefore, the halfway point of a season is a good time to take stock of where teams are, assess the teams that are surprising us both for better and for worse, and take a look at how the rest of the year could turn out.

What follows is my ranking of the difficulty of Ohio State’s remaining opponents in 2024.

6) Vs Purdue

The Boilermakers have taken several steps back, and since this game isn’t in West Lafayette, I don’t expect anything out of the ordinary from this year’s meeting with Purdue. Assuming the Buckeyes simply show the right mindset for this game after their slobberknocker at Penn State, I expect Ohio State to win by 30 to 50 points, depending on how well the starters play and if the defense forces some turnovers.

Since Northwestern is on the road the following week, this wouldn’t be considered a trap game either.

5) In the northwest

The Northwestern game is on the way, which could cause some initial sluggishness, but the Buckeyes should pull away from what has been a mediocre Wildcats team in 2024. Despite their usual struggles, the Wildcats were not at the level that David Braun led them to a year ago.

Northwestern is 2-3 at home and 1-3 in conference play. It’s not hard to understand why this is the case. The Wildcats were confused by the forward pass, ranking 106th nationally in pass defense and 124th in pass offense. Northwestern’s offense was generally terrible, ranking 119th in scoring offense, 104th in rushing offense, and 129th in total offense.

One thing the Cats have done well is stop the run and are ranked 17th nationally, but that could simply be because they are so easy to overtake. That averages No. 56 in total defense in the country, although Northwestern was decent at preventing points and ranked 29th in point defense. It won’t be enough against Ohio State.

4) vs. Nebraska

This week’s opponent presents some challenges for the OSU offense, and it will be interesting to see if the Buckeyes have corrected some of the issues they had against Oregon.

Dylan Raiola started the season well, but has cooled off in recent weeks, as has the Cornhusker offense in general. Nebraska has scored just 21 points in their last two games combined. Ohio State can control Nebraska’s passing game when it pressures Raiola, but this is an area where the Buckeyes struggled greatly against Oregon.

The Cornhuskers have a good defense, although Indiana had 56 points against them last weekend. Illinois was the only other opponent to score more than 10 points against them this season (31). While Nebraska has never had a killer series, Colorado was one of the teams that failed to break the 10-point mark.

The Huskers are No. 19 nationally in scoring defense, 18th in total defense and 16th in rushing defense, but are 44th in pass defense. Will Howard may need to take the lead off the Nebraska defense to loosen things up for the running game, especially without Josh Simmons on the offensive line.

3) At Penn State

Aside from a hiccup against Bowling Green and a real road game against a team with a Lincoln Riley offense, the Nittany Lions have given it their all on defense. Penn State has given up just 30 points in its other four games combined, including three against the four power conferences – three Big Ten, one Big 12.

Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions have also scored 115 points in those four meetings and are averaging 34.2 points per game on the season, ranking them 28th nationally in offensive scoring. The game is set in Happy Valley. Ohio State was able to score on the road with Oregon’s good defense, but Penn State’s is better.

This will be a difficult game for the Buckeyes, especially if Jim Knowles can’t get the defense going and put pressure on Drew Allar, who has a 70.5% pass rate this season.

2) Vs Indiana

Well, that’s a surprise. While Indiana had much more room for improvement than regression, it’s fair to say that no one outside of Bloomington could have predicted how much the Hoosiers would have improved in 2024.

Indiana has scored 40 or more points in six of its seven games this year, scored more than 50 three times (twice in Big Ten play) and had 77 against Western Illinois. The Hoosiers lead the nation in offense, are fifth in total offense and rank 11th and 23rd nationally in passing and rushing offense, respectively.

But the team doesn’t just outperform its opponents. Indiana ranks seventh in scoring defense and total defense, fourth nationally against the run and 24th against the pass. The Hoosiers haven’t played as well on offense as Ohio State, but the Buckeyes will face an offense and defense that are rated higher than Oregon’s.

It’s true that Indiana hasn’t played anyone better than… well, whoever is better between Northwestern, Nebraska and UCLA… so we’ll learn more about the Hoosiers in their final five games. However, they now have self-confidence and belief – two ingredients that can move a team forward.

The ink may not be dry on Curt Cignetti’s National Coach of the Year award yet, but it would be shocking if he wasn’t a finalist no matter what else happens this season. The schedule works well for the Hoosiers, who don’t play Penn State and get Michigan at home. The team’s only remaining road game other than Ohio State is at Michigan State, with Washington, Michigan and Purdue remaining at home.

It’s a special season so far in Indiana and they’re going to be much more difficult to overcome than any of us could have predicted.

1) Vs Michigan

They don’t call it “The Game” for nothing. The Wolverines have had their struggles this season, particularly at quarterback, but they are a physical team with a good defense and can play with anyone, no matter how one-handed they are. Furthermore, it seems appropriate to put That Team Up North at the top of the list until Ryan Day shows he can beat Michigan again.

In this duel it will once again come down to which team runs the ball better. Ohio State has not been that team in recent years. It must be about reversing the recent trend against the bitter rivals from the Mittenstate.