Games to watch with Indiana football in the national picture

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana football is a sensation! The first FOX Big Noon Kickoff came to Bloomington. This week is ESPN College GameDay. The Hoosiers are undefeated and atop the Big Ten. The rankings are getting higher and higher and the chances of making the College Football Playoff can be considered realistic.

We created a scoreboard watching guide two weeks ago when Indiana was idle, and it’s time to do it again so you know which games to keep an eye on that will impact Indiana’s fate can.

First and foremost is the hunt for the Big Ten. Six teams have one loss or less in the Big Ten standings. It would be unlikely that a two-loss conference team would make it to the Big Ten Championship Game, so we will only consider teams with one or fewer losses for now.

In the rankings is Indiana, currently in 13th place. To simplify things, this week we’ll focus on the five teams ahead of Indiana and a few games from the teams behind that could matter.

It’s probably too early to analyze the College Football Playoff chase separately. Until the CFP rankings are released for the first time on November 5th, we will stay dry on this matter for now.

Finally, there is the strength of the schedule. Fans don’t like to hear it, but Indiana’s strength of schedule is problematic. Indiana’s schedule is ranked 109th by ESPN – the worst of all Power Four schools and one of only four Power Four schools ranked below 100. Duke, Pittsburgh and Syracuse are the others.

Poor schedules are frowned upon by the College Football Playoff committee, so any help Indiana can get from its defeated opponents would be helpful. Therefore, the games played by Indiana’s opponents must be taken into account.

Big Ten clock

– Nebraska (5-2, 2-2) at No. 4 Ohio State (5-1, 2-1), Saturday at noon, FOX: Ohio State lost its margin for error in the Big Ten race when it lost at Oregon on Oct. 12. A win over the Cornhuskers – who had a poor showing in Bloomington last week – is crucial.

Ohio State has the toughest path to the Big Ten title game as it still has to face Penn State, host Indiana and host Michigan in its eternally unpredictable rivalry game. However, if the Buckeyes can pull this off, they will be at the top of the list of one-loss teams potentially playing in Indianapolis in December.

– No. 20 Illinois (6-1, 3-1) vs. No. 1 Oregon (7-0, 4-0), Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS: Bret Bielema worked his magic in Champaign as the Fighting Illini pretty easily dispatched Michigan with a 21-7 win last week. Illinois played hard in a road loss to Penn State on Oct. 5. Oregon’s road to a Big Ten title isn’t paved with cupcakes. This game is difficult, as are trips to Michigan and Wisconsin and a home game against Washington to close out the season, but the Ducks have passed every test they’ve faced so far.

– No. 3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) at Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1), Saturday, 7:30 p.m., NBC: The Nittany Lions passed a test two weeks ago when they beat Southern California 33-30 in overtime.

Wisconsin has stayed in the Big Ten hunt with wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, but as the Badgers have gotten stronger in the competition, they have stumbled over themselves. Witness a 42-10 home loss to Alabama and a 38-21 loss to USC.

It’s a trap game for Penn State. Their season-deciding game comes a week later when they host Ohio State. That will determine the course of their season, but in order to go undefeated against Ohio State, they must first take care of business in Madison.

Watch the rankings

– No. 17 Boise State (5-1) at UNLV (6-1), Friday, 10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network: The Broncos are four spots behind the Hoosiers, but this is a battle of the best teams in the West that aren’t in the Big Ten Conference. Boise State was impressive. The only loss was a three-point defeat at No. 1 Oregon – and that was only because the Broncos gave up two return touchdowns. Boise State reached the 45-point mark in all but one other contest.

UNLV is also good, its only setback being a three-point home loss to Syracuse. Indiana fans should keep their fingers crossed for the Runnin’ Rebels, as a Boise State win would put them head-to-head with the Hoosiers.

– No. 12 Notre Dame (6-1) vs. No. 24 Navy (6-0), Saturday at noon, ABC: The Midshipmen were a great story in 2024, winning on the road in Memphis. Aside from Notre Dame’s blip against Northern Illinois in Week 2, they have won all but one of their remaining games by 10 or more points. The Fighting Irish are right in front of the Hoosiers, so Indiana fans will likely be in Navy’s corner.

– No. 11 BYU (7-0) at UCF (3-4), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN: The Big 12 race is just as crazy as the Big Ten race, although there is more clarity at the top with BYU and Iowa State tied for the lead. One could argue that the Cougars deserve to be higher in the poll. They won at No. 22 SMU, beat No. 16 Kansas State at home by 29 points and survived and advanced in other contests. Not that Indiana fans want to hear that. They’ll be rooting for the Knights, who almost did Indiana a favor a week ago when they narrowly missed out on an upset win at Iowa State.

– No. 21 Missouri (6-1) at No. 15 Alabama (5-2), 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC: We’re only including this game because a Crimson Tide win could put them ahead of the Hoosiers. Why? SEC teams seem to be getting the benefit of the doubt from pollsters. For bluebloods like Alabama, that probably goes double.

– No. 8 LSU (6-1) at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1), Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC: From Indiana’s perspective, this is a doomed scenario that will determine the leader of the SEC. If Texas A&M wins, they could overtake the Hoosiers depending on how each game turns out. If LSU wins on the road, Indiana won’t be able to catch them. Even if LSU loses, Indiana might not be able to catch them due to the loss at a tough venue like Kyle Field.

– Kansas at No. 16 Kansas State, Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2: The Sunflower State battle is most often the focus of basketball, but it has implications for football this weekend. The Jayhawks were ranked No. 1 in the AP preseason poll but have since sunk like a stone. If the Hoosiers win, a Wildcats home win probably won’t push them above Indiana in the poll, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

– Idle: No. 9 Clemson, No. 10 Iowa State.

Observe strength of schedule

– Sam Houston 10, Florida International 7: Conference USA plays midweek games and Florida International doesn’t add to the strength of Indiana’s schedule with further losses. In this one, Sam Houston’s Christian Pavon hit a 20-yard field goal with 1:57 left to give the Bearkats the win. FIU is 2-6 this season.

– Charlotte at Memphis, Saturday noon, ESPNU: The 49ers did better than FIU. Charlotte is 3-4 and was hitting .500 before suffering a 51-17 loss at Navy last week. However, since Memphis is 6-1, another win from Charlotte would be a surprise. It’s something that would help Indiana, but don’t count on it.

– Maryland at Minnesota, Saturday, 3:30 p.m., FS1: Maryland’s come-from-behind win over USC helped Indiana’s cause last week. Maryland (4-3, 1-3) is positioned to win at Minnesota since the Terrapins won at Virginia earlier this season. Minnesota has won two straight, including a home win over then-No. 11 USC and a road win at UCLA. Indiana fans should be on the Terps’ side on this one.

– Northwestern (3-4) at Iowa (4-3), Saturday, 3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network: Northwestern beat Maryland and lost to Wisconsin since the Hoosiers beat them earlier this month. Winning at Iowa will be a tall order as Northwestern’s mediocre offense faces a very good defense, but Hoosiers fans should hope the Cats can get it done.