What is the identity of Alabama football in the Top 25 matchup against Missouri?

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – What is the identity of the 2024 Alabama team? It’s hard to say exactly what is part of the problem that has led to two defeats in the last three weeks. Saturday’s home game against Missouri, essentially life-or-death for the team’s College Football Playoff hopes, is the next opportunity to find that answer.

The Crimson Tide has shown championship-caliber stretches throughout the season, but there are always inconsistencies. They outscored South Florida 29-3 in the fourth quarter, but only after a modest 14-13 lead in the final quarter. They opened the game against Georgia on a 28-0 winning spree, but fell 34-13 the rest of the season en route to a narrow win. The offense scored 35 points in 46 games at Vanderbilt, but two costly turnovers (which led to 13 Commodores points) prevented proper recognition. The defense forced three turnovers against Tennessee in the first half and then gave up 24 points in the second half.

“We’re a decent team with a lot of potential,” offensive lineman Tyler Booker said on Next Round Live on Monday.

Still, Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC) is on its way to the ultimate goal: the playoffs and a chance at a national title. But that is secondary to the most important thing: building identity and winning the game on Saturday. It’s a top 25 match, but its significance is more important than the rankings. Alabama needs to find its team captains, selected for the first time in the preseason, to motivate the team and play at a high level. For Kalen DeBoer, it’s an opportunity to showcase his ability to rebuild his team after some losses and showcase a resilient culture under his leadership.

It is also likely that Missouri will be eliminated in the playoffs, as it only has one loss and no other major game on the schedule. Before the actual game begins, a scan of the health status of both teams provides the necessary context for the game.

On Wednesday, it was reported that Missouri starting quarterback Brady Cook was questionable for the game, and Thursday’s official report listed 13 players, ranging from “out” to “questionable.” Only three Alabama players appear on his report: Keon Sabb (out), Cayden Jones (out) and Red Morgan (probable). But nagging injuries that go unlisted, like those to Jalen Milroe, Jaeden Roberts and others, were a storyline this week.

Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide will look to avoid their second straight loss on Saturday when they host Missouri. (Saul Young/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

The bye week is just around the corner, but Alabama needs to build some momentum beforehand as it has a trip to LSU coming up on November 2nd.

Here are three keys plus a prediction for Saturday’s game:

The attack needs more levels

It’s hard to start a conversation about Alabama’s offense without touching on what’s happening at quarterback. Is Milroe injured? Has it just regressed? Is it time for another option?

The third question is interesting given the structure of Alabama’s offense. If Milroe is so ailing that he’s seriously hurting the offense, a move is worth considering. But there’s something to consider: He’s Alabama’s strongest offense. So far, Alabama hasn’t established a consistent running game other than an offense based on Milroe runs (designed or not) and then working those looks in the running backs. The Tennessee game featured a greater commitment to the run, starting with several runs early in the second half, but that didn’t last throughout the game.

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The South Florida game is the only one this season in which Jam Miller and Justice Haynes recorded double-digit carries. Aside from the opposition, both saw success as the offense averaged nearly 5.0 yards per carry. Whoever the quarterback is, Alabama needs a larger complement of running backs to take some pressure off the quarterback and an offensive line that has had some issues in pass defense. Missouri has an average rushing defense, ranking 33rd nationally.

A more balanced approach to attack is part of the equation; The other is a return to the layered, creative style of play seen at the start of the season. Alabama’s offense has felt too predictable in recent weeks. Where are the answers when the big play isn’t easily possible, as was the case with Tennessee? Part of this comes down to Milroe having to make the throws that can be made, something he failed to do last week, but the coaching staff needs to utilize personnel better: The disparity in play calls and goals between Milroe, Ryan Williams and the rest of the skill set Player stands out.

Situational execution could make a difference

Of all the offensive talking points, this statistic is the most shocking: Alabama’s defense forced 11 turnovers in SEC play, and the offense turned them into 13 total points. The lack of complementary football has hurt the team the most. There’s reason to believe the defense will continue to create extra possessions, especially when Cook isn’t playing, but the offense needs to find a way to capitalize and provide separation.

Missouri has a stingy defense. The Tigers rank ninth nationally in total defense and ninth in third-down defense and have allowed the fourth-fewest red zone plays (14). Only half of those resulted in touchdowns.

The biggest stat to keep an eye on is the first down offense. During Alabama’s first bye week, we identified this as a weakness. At that point, Alabama was averaging 6.2 yards per third down but converted 52.5 percent of its third down attempts, which ranked 16th nationally. That wasn’t sustainable as the big plays became less frequent and the early offense didn’t improve.

Today, Alabama has 53 third-down attempts, 33 of which were 7 or more yards. Now Alabama is converting just 42.2 percent of its attempts, a drop of nearly 10 percent, and ranks 50th with 34. Three keys within the three keys: avoid early down penalties, stay ahead of the chains and control time of possession.

Possible statement play for defense

The news about Cook’s status is compounded by the fact that Missouri’s leading rusher Nate Noel is listed as out and third-leading receiver Mookie Cooper is listed as doubtful. This is a run-down Missouri offense, and Alabama’s defense needs a performance that reflects that.

Fifth-grader Drew Pyne is expected to take Cook’s place. The former Notre Dame and Arizona State starter completed just 10 of 21 passes in Cook’s absence against Auburn, but is much more experienced than most college backup quarterbacks with 379 career attempts.

Still, Alabama was vulnerable to big plays through the air every week, no matter who the quarterback was. The Crimson Tide have injury concerns in their secondary: Sabb is out and several players, such as Morgan, Zabien Brown and DeVonta Smith, are recovering from injuries and may not be at full strength. The focus will be on the safeties: Bray Hubbard, making his first career start in Sabb’s place, and Malachi Moore, who will need to take on an even larger role than he already has to ensure the secondary is aligned properly.

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One advantage for Alabama is that Pyne doesn’t provide the mobile threat that has hurt this defense. Without that element or the starting running back, defensive players should be able to pin their ears back and pursue Pyne. The defense showed some improvement last week despite the second half numbers and has found a rhythm on passes and takeaways. Now it takes a complete game.

Consider: Despite the two defeats, there is still a lot of football to be played. No team in the SEC is undefeated in conference play. And there’s a scenario in which as many as nine teams could finish 6-2 in league play, including, of course, Alabama if it wins. The SEC Championship Game is a way out, but there is a chance with a turnaround in November.

forecast

The negativity swirls and the pressure mounts, but victory heals all. Alabama is at home, Missouri has a significant injury backlog and it feels like Alabama needs this game more. Does this mean it is a complete and clean operation? No, this team hasn’t shown that yet. But I am confident that Alabama will do enough to win the game and head into the bye week, where there is still a lot to figure out before the big showdown with LSU.

Alabama 24, Missouri 13

(Top photo by Kalen DeBoer: Saul Young / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)