US election: Results may not come until days after November 5th; Here’s what to expect

As Americans head to the polls on November 5, the tight fight between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could mean the result won’t be known immediately. Due to the extensive counting of absentee and absentee ballots in key battleground states, initial results may shift over several days, reflecting patterns from the 2020 election.

Here’s what to expect in the seven swing states that will likely determine the next president.

Arizona

Absentee voting remains popular in Arizona, with nearly 90% of voters casting ballots in early 2020. Election officials can process and tabulate these ballots upon receipt, but the results will be withheld until one hour after polls close. It can take days for votes cast on Election Day to be counted – often a significant portion – which may initially tip in Harris’ favor before tipping toward Trump when ballots are counted on Election Day. Late-arriving mail-in ballots could shift the results in Harris’ favor again in the following days.

Georgia

Georgia is anticipating high early in-person voter turnout, with up to 70% of ballots expected to be cast before Election Day. While mail-in ballots can be processed in advance, counting does not begin until Election Day. Under state law, all early voting must be reported by 8:00 p.m. ET. Overseas and military ballots that could impact a close race will be counted if they arrive within three days. Officials expect the counting to be completed by midnight, but the final result could depend on these additional ballots.

Michigan

For the first time, Michigan has implemented early in-person voting and is now allowing larger jurisdictions to process mail-in ballots up to eight days before Election Day. This should speed up results and reduce the likelihood of a “red mirage,” like in 2020, when early results favored Trump before mail-in ballots shifted the lead to Biden. Smaller jurisdictions can’t begin processing ballots until the day before Nov. 5, so delays may still occur if margins are tight.

Nevada

Recent rule changes in Nevada allow officials to begin processing and counting mail-in ballots early. While in-person early ballots can be counted starting at 8 a.m. PT on Election Day, the state’s acceptance of late-arriving mail-in ballots — as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 5 and received within four days — could delay final results. These late votes tend to favor Democrats, which could lead to a shift toward Harris after Election Day.

North Carolina

North Carolina processes mail-in ballots before Election Day, meaning early results will reflect early mail-in and in-person voting. Election Day voting will follow, likely extending Harris’ initial lead as more votes are counted. Mail-in ballots postmarked by Nov. 5 will be counted during a 10-day voting period, meaning a close race may not be decided for a week or more.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is a critical swing state and is not allowed to process mail-in ballots until Election Day, causing significant delays. Early results will likely show Trump ahead based on in-person voting, but that lead could narrow as mail-in ballots are counted. A recently passed law requires counties to report the number of uncounted mail-in ballots by midnight on election night to increase transparency and counter potential misinformation.

Wisconsin

Because of similar ballot processing rules to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin cannot count mail-in ballots until Election Day. Large cities like Milwaukee centralize ballot processing, resulting in significant vote counts being released in bulk, often only after polls close. In 2020, an early morning release of mail-in ballots in Milwaukee dramatically changed the results, leading Trump and his supporters to claim fraud. A similar pattern of reporting could occur this year, with mail-in ballots tipping in Harris’ favor.

Due to differing procedures in the battleground states, the country may experience fluctuating vote counts in the days following November 5th, with possible shifts in each candidate’s lead as mail-in ballots are counted. Election officials are seeking transparency to prevent misinformation, but a close race could mean it takes days or even weeks to announce a final winner.

(With inputs from Reuters)