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topicnews · October 25, 2024

In the 2024 New York elections, the key House is a race to watch

In the 2024 New York elections, the key House is a race to watch

The year 2024 was an active year for the New York delegation to the House of Representatives. A new set of congressional maps was presented and approved, ending a years-long legal battle. Then there were two special elections — one to replace former Rep. George Santos after his historic expulsion — followed by some painful primaries this spring.

This all comes after the 2022 elections, in which Democratic House candidates largely held their own across the country and avoided an overwhelming “red wave.” But New York stood out in stark contrast. Republicans flipped four Democratic seats in the Empire State, a number that ultimately helped Republicans win their slim majority in the House.

With the presidential election at the top of the list and control of the House of Representatives once again up for grabs this fall, New York’s congressional elections are back in the spotlight.

Here are the New York State races to keep an eye on.

Republican U.S. Rep. Brandon Williams (left) and Democratic Sen. John Mannion are the candidates in New York’s 22nd Congressional District. (Spectrum News 1 graphic)

NY-22

The Central New York District’s redrawn boundaries in 2024 may be the most different in the state from two years ago. It now consists of Onondaga, Madison and parts of Oneida, Cortland and Cayuga counties and is somewhat more Democratic and Cook Political Report Earlier this year, he called the seat one of the most vulnerable seats in the country for Republicans. It is currently held by GOP Rep. Brandon Williams, who was first elected in 2022.

While it would seem to be an advantage, Democrats have been burned here in recent cycles. The district, which includes the city of Syracuse, is something of a white whale for the party, having had a Democratic representative in just four of the last 44 years, despite a slight Democratic voter advantage and despite voting for Democratic presidential candidates for more than three decades has. The district voted for Joe Biden by 7 points in 2020.

In the last poll before the 2022 election, Williams’ Democratic opponent actually had a four-point lead. Williams would win by two.

Sen. John Mannion, who has served in the state’s upper house in Albany for four years and is used to running in the extremely close races that can arise in the region, is the Democrat who can address the party’s shortcomings in the fight for the seat. He won his 2022 race by just 10 votes.

Cook Political Report, The independent nonpartisan index and analysis group rates the race as “lean Democrat.”

Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro (left) and Democrat Josh Riley are the candidates for New York’s 19th Congressional District. (Spectrum News 1 graphic)

NY-19

The highest-profile rematch of 2022 is in the 19th Congressional District, which stretches from Rensselaer and Columbia counties east to Tompkins County and includes the cities of Binghamton and Ithaca.

Republican Marc Molinaro won the seat in 2022 by 2 points against Democrat Josh Riley, who is making another challenge. Molinaro touts his decades of living in upstate New York and supporting various unions while portraying Riley as an out-of-touch Washington insider. Riley responded by saying he was a fifth-generation Broome County native and described his opponent as a career politician. He referred to the decades that Molinaro spent in public office.

In this cycle, the two particularly argued over the issue of immigration.

Had the district existed in its current form in 2020, it voted for Biden for president by 5 points. Cook Political Report classifies the race as a “tossup”.

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler (left) and Democrat Mondaire Jones are the candidates in New York’s 17th Congressional District. (Spectrum News 1 graphic)

NY-17

Further south, there is a race that is not a rematch but a fight between an incumbent and the former incumbent.

In one of the more surprising GOP performances of 2022, Republican Mike Lawler defeated Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney, then chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by a narrow 0.9 points, while Biden had a 10-point lead two years earlier.

In 2024, Lawler will face Democrat Mondaire Jones, who represents the 17th districtTh The single-term district prior to redistricting led Maloney to seek re-election in the new 17th District rather than his home District 18. Instead of challenging Maloney, Jones decided to run in another district, but was unsuccessful. Since leaving Congress, Jones has been appointed to a six-year term on the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights.

Earlier this month, Lawler apologized afterwards The New York Times I received photos of him in blackface at a college Halloween costume party about two decades ago, where he was dressed as Michael Jackson.

Another sticking point in this race is the presence in the Working Families Party caucus of Anthony Frascone, who unexpectedly won the party’s nomination for the seat in the June primary. Jasmine Gripper, co-state director of the state Working Families Party, said Spectrum News Over the summer, it was discovered that Frascone had no connection to the Working Families Party, never went through the party’s endorsement process and was probably a Republicans plan to take votes away from Jones.

The 17th District consists of Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and Southern Dutchess counties. Cook Political Report classifies the race as “lean Republican.”

Republican Alison Esposito and Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan are the candidates for New York’s 18th Congressional District. (Spectrum News 1 graphic)

NY-18

The 18th Congressional District was the only good news for Hudson Valley Democrats in 2022. Rep. Pat Ryan, who had just won an election victory in another district months earlier, held on in this new district by 1.3 points.

Like Lawler in the South, Ryan faces an opponent in Republican Alison Esposito who has gained some notoriety from recent political campaigns. A former NYPD detective for 20 years, Esposito ran alongside Lee Zeldin as the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor in 2022. Two years ago, when Ryan emerged victorious, Zeldin and Esposito led the district in the governor’s race in the same Ballot with a lead of three points.

Although Ryan was the first New York Democratic congressman to call on President Joe Biden to resign after the June debate against former President Donald Trump, both Ryan and Esposito have accused the other of rubber-stamping their respective party’s candidates for the White House .

The 18th District consists of portions of Orange, Dutchess and Ulster counties and includes the cities of Poughkeepsie and Kingston. They voted for Biden for president in 2020 by 8 points Cook Political Report classifies the race as “lean Democrat.”

Laura Gillen (left) and Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito are the candidates in New York’s 4th Congressional District. (Spectrum News 1 graphic)

NY-04

From the numerous battlefields in the northern part of the state to the political arena on Long Island. No other region in the state has experienced such dramatic change in such a short period of time. The district, made up of central and southern Nassau County, voted for Joe Biden for president by 15 points in 2020 and for Lee Zeldin for governor by 6 points in 2022. This election also saw Republican Anthony D’Esposito, retiring Democrat, win the seat by 4 points.

Like fellow GOP newcomer Molinaro, D’Esposito faces a rematch with his 2022 opponent, Democrat Laura Gillen, a former Hempstead city manager.

The race is the only competitive race to receive visits from political heavyweights in the final weeks of the campaign. Former President Donald Trump held a rally in Uniondale in September where he praised D’Esposito for his “great work.”

Hakeem Jeffries, the New York House minority leader who is poised to become the next House speaker if Democrats win the chamber, aligned himself with Gillen last week.

D’Esposito has denied the allegations he first reported The New York Times in September that he gave both his mistress and his fiancée’s child jobs in his congressional office – a possible violation of House ethics rules.

An Oct. 22 Siena College and News day The poll showed Gillen D’Esposito leading by 8 points. Cook Political Report classifies the race as a “tossup”.

Democrat John Avlon and Republican Rep. Nick LaLota are the candidates in New York’s 1st Congressional District. (Spectrum News 1 graphic)

NY-01

Remaining on Long Island is the race between Republican Rep. Nick LaLota and Democrat John Avlon. Like its neighbor, this Suffolk County district saw drastic changes between the 2020 presidential race and the 2022 gubernatorial race. Biden and Trump were tied 50-50%, while Republican Lee Zeldin, his home district and House district, led the district by 14 points. Additionally, since 2020, Republicans have wiped out Democrats in local offices in Suffolk County.

LaLota ran to replace Zeldin in Congress and won the 1st District by 10 points two years ago, and Republicans have held the seat for a decade.

Avlon is a former CNN commentator.

The October Siena College and News day The poll showed LaLota leading Avlon by 3 points. Cook Political Report rates the race as “likely Republican.”

The Capitol is seen late Tuesday evening, September 26, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

NY-03

Finally, there is the seat that produced George Santos and the headline-filled months that followed, a saga that featured Democrat Tom Suozzi.

Suozzi was first elected in 2016 and did not seek re-election in 2022, instead running unsuccessfully for governor. His absence helped Santos win the 3rd District seat this year after first seeking it in 2020.

After Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives in December 2023, Suozzi jumped into the ring for a special election for his old seat, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip by 8 points in February. He is now running for a full two-year term in the House and faces Republican Michael LiPetri, who served a single term in the state legislature.

The district stretches from northern Nassau County to northeast Queens. Cook Political Report classifies it as “probably Democratic.”

Early voting in New York begins Saturday, October 26th and continues through Sunday, November 3rd. Election day is November 5th.

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