Organized crime is fighting for electoral control in Brazil

As the second round of local elections in Brazil approaches on October 27, criminal groups are increasingly being caught using new financial methods to influence outcomes in addition to the violence they traditionally use to influence the political scene.

Brazilian lawmakers reported unprecedented levels of corruption, vote buying and organized crime infiltration during the current voting period, the first round of which took place on October 6.

According to federal police, in 2024 authorities seized more than 50 million reais (around $8 million) related to vote buying and the use of funds by parties and candidates without reporting it to electoral authorities.

SEE ALSO:Criminal groups drive pre-election violence in Mexico and Brazil: Study

Election-related cash seizures from 2020 and 2022, when the country held its last local and federal elections, respectively, did not exceed 10 million reais (around $1.7 million) per electoral cycle, representing an unprecedented scale of such irregularities made clear this year.

The Supreme Election Court has also registered similar evidence, and lawmakers have highlighted it in their campaign speeches. “Specific cases have shown that the First Capital Command (Primeiro Comando da Capital – PCC) is involved in public contracts. I assume they are [involved] Even in the election campaign,” MP Kiko Celeguim said in a speech reported by Folha, although he did not provide evidence.

Criminal groups continue to use violence to manipulate recent elections through shootings, beatings or riots, or to protect their interests by depressing voter turnout and protecting certain candidates. According to the nonprofit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), there was a more than 40% increase in attacks on local officials in 2024.

For example, on October 3, three men on a motorcycle attacked and injured a candidate for city council in Barra do Piraí, Rio de Janeiro state. Two days later, a gunman shot at the car of a city councilor and mayoral candidate during a motorcade in Valparaíso, São Paulo state.

SEE ALSO:Explaining extreme electoral violence in Mexico

These trends mirror election violence patterns ACLED has reported in previous elections, but are accompanied by higher levels of illicit cash flows than ever before.

InSight crime analysis

An increased police focus on combating illicit funds could explain the record amounts seized in 2024. Federal police have intensified their fight against financial election crime this year, carrying out more than 60 operations focused on organized crime involvement ahead of the first election round. This represents an increase of more than 200% compared to the last local election in 2020.

According to ACLED, the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro were the most affected by election-related violence in the months leading up to the elections. The PCC and the Red Command (Comando Vermelho – CV) are based in these states.

In the two states that are home to Brazil’s most influential gangs, criminal groups are relying on violence to attack local officials and influence elections. According to a report by the Organization of American States (OAS), political actors fear measures such as coercion and mobility restrictions by criminal groups in certain communities in order to manipulate who can vote.

In regions such as the north, where their electoral infiltration is often linked to illegal logging and mining, the gangs may be more focused on financial efforts. The lower number of violent incidents in states other than Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo suggests that the situation varies across the country.