Ohio State vs. Nebraska score prediction by an expert football model

An important Big Ten football matchup begins Saturday when No. 4 Ohio State returns home to face Nebraska in Week 9 of college football. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects results and picks winners.

Ohio State fell 2-1 in Big Ten play after a one-point loss at Oregon and is back in the Horseshoe to build some confidence for another tough road matchup against Penn State next weekend, with the team’s playoff hopes may be uncertain equilibrium.

Nebraska slipped to a 2-2 mark in conference play after getting mauled by Indiana in a 56-7 decision and begins its second straight road game against a ranked conference opponent looking to pull off one of the biggest upsets of all time the season.

What do the analytical models suggest when the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers meet in this Big Ten matchup?

To do this, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview the Ohio State vs. Nebraska matchup in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the models are strongly on the side of the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers this week.

SP+ predicts Ohio State will beat Nebraska by a margin of a expected score 33 to 11 and win the game as expected Lead of 22 points included.

The model gives the Buckeyes a powerful look 92 percent chance of complete victory.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a win rate of 52.1 after being 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total below 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -7000 and for Nebraska at +2000 win directly.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors playing against the Cornhuskers this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

62 percent of bets currently assume Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread in the process.

Nebraska gets 38 percent of betting on either winning the game in an upset or, more likely, keeping the final score under this generous limit.

Ohio State was 41.3 points better than his opponents when playing at home so far this season.

And the Buckeyes were 19.3 points better than the opponent’s average over the last three games overall.

Nebraska averaged 15.5 points worse than his opponents when he plays away in 2024.

And the Cornhuskers are average 8 points worse total over the last three games, with last week’s 49-point loss at Indiana playing a big role in determining that average.

Most other analytical models also favor the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers in this game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Ohio State is expected to win the game in the overwhelm 96.5 percent the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining game 3.5 percent by Sims.

Ohio State is expected to be 29.5 points better than Nebraska on the same field in the current makeup of both teams, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with one 77.2 percent chance according to FPI metrics to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

This model gives the Buckeyes an overall win prediction of 10.6 games this season.

Nebraska is expected to have one 85.3 percent chance about qualifying for a bowl game this year.

FPI gives the Cornhuskers an overall win prediction of 6.5 games in ’24.

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12pm ET | 11am CT
TV: Fox network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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