When will it rain in NYC? Record approximations for consecutive dry days

STATEN ISLAND, NY – “Rain, rain, go away. Come back another day.”

Okay, rain, now it’s time to come back. Seriously.

As of Friday, New York City has gone the entire month of October — 25 days — without any measurable precipitation. This unprecedented dry spell is already breaking historic records, and if it continues, the five counties could break an all-time record for the number of consecutive days without precipitation.

A whole month without rain (so far)

According to AccuWeather, New York City last saw measurable precipitation on September 30. On Staten Island, the last rain of any kind fell on Sept. 29, a total of 0.18 inches, as recorded by weather station Advance/SILive.com.

This period of drought is becoming more frequent day by day and is increasingly posing a huge threat to existing records.

According to National Weather Service (NWS) data on Central Park from 1869 to June 16, 2024, only a few years have had such extensive stretches without precipitation. This latest drought has already made it into the top 10 longest rain-free periods in New York City.

Since Friday marked the 25th day of this dry October, it is now tied to the years 1968 and 1942, which each had 25-day stretches, according to the NWS.

The longest period in Central Park without measurable precipitation was 36 days, from October 10 to November 13, 1924 – a century ago.

Notably, according to AccuWeather’s forecast, no rain is expected in the five boroughs through the end of the month. If conditions continue to be bone dry, New York City will go through the entire month of October without any measurable precipitation. According to AccuWeather, Central Park’s driest October was in 1963, when it received just 0.14 inches of precipitation.

A completely dry October would also break the record for the driest month in New York City history. AccuWeather reports that the driest month in the city was June 1949, when only 0.02 inches of rain fell.

For reference, October typically sees 4.38 inches of rain in the Central Park area, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data from 1991 to 2020.

A rain-free October could also contribute to a record for one of the driest falls in the city’s history. If New York City makes it through October with no precipitation, November would have to do some work in terms of precipitation to avoid being declared one of the driest autumns on record.

According to the NWS Central Park from 1869 to June 16, 2024, the driest autumn on record was in 1908, when only 10 cm of rain fell from September to the end of November.

Since August 20, New York City has received 1.92 inches of observable precipitation, according to AccuWeather. On Staten Island, the county has seen just 1.23 inches of measurable rain since Sept. 1, as recorded by weather station Advance/SILive.com.

This ultimately means that November would have to deliver nearly 3 inches of precipitation for this season to not be one of the driest in the city’s history, barring some precipitation by the end of Halloween.

The danger of forest fires

Despite the appeal of sunny days, AccuWeather warns that these dry conditions are fueling “serious” wildfire concerns.

The threat is compounded by elevated, unseasonable temperatures. On Monday and Tuesday, temperatures on Staten Island reached the low 80s, as measured by weather station Advance/SILive.com.

“The first three weeks of October were among the driest on record in the densely populated area from New York to Philadelphia, and we are concerned about the risk of wildfires in this area this fall,” said Geoff Cornish, on-air broadcaster and volunteer Firefighter with AccuWeather said.

Those concerns have led AccuWeather to issue a “high risk” warning for fires in and around the tri-state area.

“People should take particular care to avoid open fires, especially on windy days, and those who live in wooded or wooded areas should be careful to leave a “defensible space” around their home – staying several meters away from the fire “The outside wall of your home will be clear of any leaves, debris or dormant vegetation,” Cornish added. “Keeping a combustible area clear around your home gives firefighters a better chance of protecting your home from wildfires if one breaks out nearby.”

A bushfire broke out in Clove Lakes Park just on Friday morning. Although this could be due to the unusual conditions, the FDNY has not determined an official cause of the fire.