Early voting in Maryland: What we learned about day one

Nearly 43,000 Marylanders participated on the first day of the state’s early voting period, about 1% of Maryland’s more than 4.5 million registered voters. We don’t yet know how they do voted, we know a little about who voted and where.

About 46% of first-time voters on Thursday were registered Democrats, compared to nearly 29% Republicans. Early voter turnout data suggests Republican turnout was slightly higher, although the sample size is small. Nationwide, more than 53% of registered voters are registered as Democrats and nearly 24% are registered as Republicans. This is according to early voting data from the Maryland State Board of Elections.

In 14 of Maryland’s 24 counties, Republicans were already more represented on the earliest election day. The greatest wiggle room was in Prince George’s County, the second largest in the state. About 1.8% of registered Republicans in the county voted on the first day of the early voting period, compared to just 0.8% of registered Democrats.

But PG County has far more registered Democrats — more than 10 times as many as Republicans — and the vast majority of votes there were cast by registered Democrats.

Where are registered Democrats and Republicans who vote early?

Baltimore City and Prince George’s County posted the Democrats’ largest first-day lead.

Put simply, Republicans are outnumbered in Maryland, but one day they will turn out at the polls at slightly higher rates than Democrats.

Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on voting, it is difficult to compare this year’s early voting numbers with those of the 2020 presidential election. But in 2016, Democrats had higher early voting turnout than Republicans.

Early voters were also generally older. Almost 69% of early voters were at least 45 years old and almost 8% were between 18 and 24 years old. The majority of them were women, although only in a small proportion and no more than the natural difference between men and women in the female population.

However, there are some differences between age and gender at the district level. Women voted more in the state’s largest counties, but they outnumbered men in many smaller counties. Looking at young voters — those ages 18 to 24, a sample of about 3,400 voters statewide — voting patterns vary widely by gender. About two-thirds of young voters in Garrett County, for example, were men. At the other extreme, nearly 70% of early voters in Somerset County were women. Among larger counties, Baltimore City had the highest proportion of young female voters at over 57%. But even the city had fewer than 100 such voters.

Statewide, about 58% of registered female voters are registered Democrats, compared to 46% of men. On the first day of voting, about 49% of women who voted were registered Democrats and 42% of men, again suggesting slightly higher Republican turnout in the early stages across all genders.

It is important to remember that these numbers are a very small sample and not a random sample at that.

Early voting lasts until October 31st.