Will the last 9 days match the big surge during the same period in 2016? – The B place

Moroe County Election Operations (Oct. 25, 2024)

Tomorrow (Saturday, October 26) is the first Saturday that the Monroe County Election Operations Building will be open for early in-person voting.

The total number of early in-person voting in Monroe County this year is better than the numbers at the same point in the early voting process in 2016.

During the first 13 days of early voting this year (ending Thursday, October 24), an average of 1,224 people voted. That’s higher than the average of 1,056 people who voted in the first 13 days of in-person early voting in 2016.

The 2016 early voting included one fewer day as it began on a Wednesday. This was due to a Monday holiday, Columbus Day, which moved voter registration to Tuesday this year.

So the significantly lower average per day eight years ago – coupled with the fact that there was one less day back then – could suggest that the total number of early votes this year is bound to be significantly better than in 2016, when the pace This year so far this year is higher or less maintained.

However, this assumes that the pace of early voting remains fairly consistent over the four-week period. In 2016, the number was not consistent, increasing to an average of 1,629 voters per day during the last nine days of early voting. The 2016 count showed a peak of 2,554 voters on the last Friday before Election Day on Tuesday.

That means that to reach the total number of 27,024 in-person early voters in 2016, the pace will have to pick up at least a little in the last two weeks of this year, by an average of about 10 voters per day.

But if this year’s final nine-day total matches the 14,663 voters who cast ballots in person in 2016, this year’s total would be 30,576, about 3,500 more early voters than in 2016.

This year, an additional 4,966 voters requested a postal vote before the deadline. In 2016, only 3,965 absentee ballots were mailed. If all 4,966 requested mail-in ballots are returned this year, that would give a total vote count of 35,542 before Election Day.

In 2016, the early votes amounted to around 51.8 percent of the total 59,847 voters. If there are 35,542 early votes in Monroe County this year and the share of early votes remains the same as in 2016, that would equate to a total voter turnout of about 68,600. That’s around 9,000 more than the 59,847 voters in 2016.

Early voting patterns in 2020 were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. For this reason, The B Square uses 2016 as the reference year.

Here is the remaining early voting schedule:

Published
October 25, 2024October 25, 2024