Live updates: LNP projected to form government in Queensland, defeating Labor for the first time in almost a decade

David Crisafulli and the LNP have run a (mostly) slick campaign, and it has delivered them power in a state that Labor has run for 30 of the past 35 years.

But on the current count, they’ve done it by a far slimmer margin than they would’ve hoped.

They may yet scrape over the line into majority, but opinion polls only a few weeks ago suggested they’d have a much healthier buffer in parliament.

The LNP kept their discipline through the campaign, sticking to a small set of key messages.

A firm focus on issues like youth crime and cost of living became a thorn in the government’s side, and Steven Miles struggled to convince voters to give his party a fourth term in government.

But the outgoing premier ran an ambitious campaign, with promises like 50 cent public transport fares and electricity bill relief.

And then, when changes to abortion law were put on the table by crossbencher Robbie Katter, the LNP floundered.

Polls this week suggested there had been a late tightening in the race, and the count tonight appears to have confirmed that.

Does Labor have the KAP to thank for helping them hold on to several seats in Brisbane?

Perhaps, but at the end of the day, that tightening didn’t come soon or fast enough for the outgoing premier.

And for the LNP, a victory is a victory, even if they’ve had to bite their nails for a little longer than they would’ve hoped.

Reporting by Johanna Marie

Mr Bennett says he’s hopeful the swing to the LNP continues.

“Making a majority government is where we want to be, but in the seat of Burnett it’s incredibly humbling to be able to represent for another four years,” he says.

Reporting by Scout Wallen

Nigel Hutton is celebrating his win of the Keppel seat in Yeppoon

Mr Hutton, a local high school teacher, said his community was ready for change.

He said he couldn’t have done it without the support of his volunteers, and his family.

“It was really important to me that [my daughters] were out campaigning with me today to see what it was all about,” he said.

Brittany Lauga says she has spoken to Mr Hutton and conceded defeat. 

“I wish him all the very best as the next member for Keppel, it is a huge job and it is something that takes a lot of energy and time,” she says,

Reporting by David Chen

Police officer Nigel Dalton is expected to win the seat of Mackay for the LNP, taking the seat off the ALP.

The seat was being contested by Labor candidate local councillor Belinda Hassan as current MP Julieanne Gilbert is retiring.

It’s the first time the LNP will have won Mackay, which has been held by Labor since 1915.

Mr Dalton addressed the media short time ago:

“The community of Mackay has asked for change, pleaded for change — this is a fresh start for Mackay,” he said.

“This is a massive night for Mackay in 109 years, we’ve not had a LNP representative in this electorate.”

“I will work, I will work, I will work.”

The ABC projects that the Liberal National Party will form government in Queensland, defeating the Labor Party led by outgoing premier Steven Miles.

David Crisafulli will be the 41st premier of the state.

The party has been in opposition since the defeat of Campbell Newman’s government after a single term in 2015.

The LNP will win enough seats to make it the largest party in parliament.

It’s not yet clear if the party will win the 47 seats required for majority, or if will need to rely on crossbenchers.

Reporting by Emily Dobson

With an early vote count indicating we may see a hung parliament, Robbie Katter could hold the balance of power and become a somewhat of a “kingmaker”.

David Crisafulli has made it clear he won’t be looking to make deals if the LNP have a minority government, but Mr Katter said Crisafulli may not have a choice.

The Katter’s Australian Party leader has stood by his previous comments and says he expected an apology from Mr Crisafulli before considering working with the LNP.

“The first thing he should be saying to me is sorry and apologising for the smutty campaign he’s been behind for the last couple of weeks,” Mr Katter says.

“He’s done his reputation damage, if he wants to move forward with some integrity he’ll have to apologise for the way his party has behaved,” he said

In spite of this, the incumbent member said he intends to put his best foot forward for the region.

“We’ll leave our emotional baggage at the door and do our best for North Queensland,” he said.

That’s the conventional wisdom surrounding Queensland state politics.

When there is a change of government, voters are usually comprehensive. Think of the landslides in 2012 and 2015. 

But retiring Labor minister Stirling Hinchliffe has come out swinging on the results of this state election so far.

“What we’re seeing is a change of government … when that happens in Queensland it’s the result of big swings,” he tells ABC Brisbane.

“When Queensland changes government it swings big, except tonight.

He says it doesn’t look like that’s the case tonight.

Cameron Dick says the “big wipeout that we all feared in the Labor party hasn’t eventuated”.

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“As I said for us earlier in the night, it’s tough for us to win,” he says.

“You see the LNP horse with its nose ahead now and I think that may be the case, but it’s going to be that big drop of pre-poll, early voting ballots as they’re opened … it’s going to start making it hard for us.”

Reporting by Lily Nothling

Labor’s three Townsville MPs have arrived at their election party at the Jubilee Bowls club in Mundingburra.

Scott Stewart, Aaron Harper and Les Walker are all projected to lose their seats to the LNP.

Crime has been a key issue for voters in Townsville.

The men have been greeted with pizza from a room full of party faithful.

Reporting by Christopher Testa

Labor MP Craig Crawford has told party members he’s in the hunt to retain Barron River.

He’s based that on information from his scrutineers.

“They are reporting that we are holding on to Barron River so it’s going to be tight,” he said.

The ABC is projecting the LNP will gain the seat with Bree James ahead with 25.5 per cent of the vote counted.

Mr Crawford said he doesn’t believe the LNP will be able to claim government tonight.

“You don’t get the government without my seat,” he said.

Labor MP Tom Smith won the seat by nine votes in 2020.

At this stage it is looking like he’ll win my more than that this time around.

Reporting by Owen Jacques

Mackay mayor Greg Williamson says the likely LNP win “an historic event” for Mackay, which has not had a conservative member elected in at least 74 years.

Williamson says he while there were more votes still to count, he was excited that Mackay would now demand the attention of politicians as a marginal seat.

“Regardless of what they all say, what the political parties say about pork barrelling, we know it happens,” he says.

“When you have a very safe seat, the likelihood of getting any large expenditure is very low.

“The fact that (Mackay) will be a marginal seat from now on is absolutely sensational in my book.”

He says the region has long been “rusted on Labor” but times are changing.

Mackay has been held by retiring Labor MP Julieanne Gilbert.

Mr Williamson’s former deputy mayor Belinda Hassan stepped up in her place against LNP challenger Nigel Dalton, a career police officer.

Reporting by Conor Byrne

In the strong Labor seat of Mulgrave in Queensland’s Far North, LNP candidate and former Cairns mayor Terry James is pulling out a tiny lead in the two-candidate result after the first count of preferences.

The seat is interesting because it’s recently been vacated by the Pitt family for the first time since 1989, but it also has the highest number of contenders at 10.

Mr James is pleased to be neck-and-neck with Labor’s Richie Bates.

“I think we can sneak up a bit more, and it’ll be very close,” he said.

“I can’t see it being worked out tonight.”

It’s still too early to call the far north Queensland seat that has only fallen out of Labor hands once since 1904.

Sitting MP Michael Healy is ahead right now, but there has been a swing towards LNP candidate Yolonde Entsch.

She tells the ABC’s Adam Stephen that crime is “the single biggest issue in Cairns” but she has faced a tough campaign by Labor.

Mrs Entsch, the wife of federal Liberal MP Warren Entsch, says there is a strong mood for change in the city, but she doesn’t expect a result in the seat until tomorrow.

A hung parliament is when no party reaches that magical number of 47 and form majority government.

In that case, parties will have to barter and trade with minor parties, like the KAP and the Greens, and independents.

Parties don’t have to go as far as forming a coalition, all they have to is guarantee “confidence and supply”, ensuring its legitimacy is backed and they can get budget bills through the house.

During the campaign, both the LNP and Labor said they wouldn’t be doing any deals.

He says the party is picking up seats in regional Queensland.

Antony: But they’re not winning anywhere else. So, I think they can reach majority, but it’s not clear yet.

At this stage, I would say they’ve got a better chance of finishing with more seats than Labor, so that’s what the picture may be by the end of the evening.

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 Amanda Stoker is projected to win the seat of Oodgeroo.

She has previously served as a senator from 2018 to 2022.

She has been asked whether she would like to see changes to Queensland’s abortion laws.

She says the LNP’s position has been clear and ” it is not going to change”.

“I am disappointed that Labor were able to frighten so many people across Queensland into a position that really doesn’t reflect the pain points for people day-to-day in our community,” she says.

“Our team has made a commitment and we stick together asa team, we keep our promises to the community and the team has been clear that there are not going to beany changes.”

Reporting by Jessica Lamb

LNP candidate Hermann Vorster is projected to win the seat of Burleigh on the Gold Coast.

The retiring LNP member is Michael Hart who has represented the seat since 2012.

Mr Vorster is with his family and supporters at the Palm Beach Currumbin Sports Club tonight.