Donald Trump could ‘make history’ and break 20-year record – election analyst

Former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, could “make history” and break a 20-year record by winning the popular vote in next month’s election, election analyst Harry Enten said Friday.

Enten, a CNN political data reporter, highlighted some recent polls CNN News Central On Friday, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, were essentially tied in the popular vote.

Because of the country’s Electoral College system, the popular vote does not decide the election, but instead counts the number of electoral votes specified by each state until a candidate reaches the threshold of 270 needed to win the White House. Still, the popular vote can determine how many Americans overall supported each candidate, and winning it is still an achievement.

It would not only be a success for Trump if he wins the popular vote, but also a historic event for himself, as he lost the popular vote twice in 2016 and 2020.

In his first run for the Oval Office, Trump lost the popular vote to his Democratic opponent, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, by around 3 million votes (65,853,514 to 62,984,828). But he won the electoral vote 304 to 227, which gave him the presidency.

In 2020, Trump lost the popular vote and the Electoral College to his Democratic opponent, now-President Joe Biden. Biden received about 7 million more votes than Trump overall (81,268,867 to 74,216,747) and received 306 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 232.

“He could make history — not just for Donald Trump, but for a Republican candidate,” Enten said after explaining that no Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush won the popular vote against his Democratic opponent in his successful re-election in 2004 won. then-Massachusetts Senator John Kerry.

Bush, like Trump, won the Electoral College in 2016 but lost the popular vote in 2000 in a razor-thin race against his Democratic opponent, then-Vice President Al Gore.

Enten also mentioned that the last time the Republican Party won the popular vote was since Bush v. Kerry in 1988, when Bush’s father, George HW Bush, received more electoral votes and total votes than his Democratic opponent, then-Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis.

The election analyst gave a “potentially good sign for Democrats” in a scenario in which Harris wins the Electoral College.

“You can look at the state-level polls and see that Donald Trump is doing particularly well in California, Florida, New York and Texas,” Enten said.

He continued: “Of course, none of these states are actually in the caucus right now, so Donald Trump may win in the national popular polls, but in reality he’s wasting votes, which could actually lead to a case where Kamala Harris could slip by in the Electoral College, by sweeping the battleground Great Lakes states that are far too close to call at this point.”

California and New York are safe blue states, while Florida and Texas are expected to remain red, but states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are a problem.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment Saturday morning.

What do the surveys show?

A New York Times/A Siena College poll conducted Oct. 20-23 found Harris and Trump tied with 48 percent voter support each. The poll surveyed 2,516 likely voters nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

A Wall Street Journal According to a poll conducted between October 19 and 22, Trump leads Harris 47 percent to 45 percent. The poll surveyed 1,500 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

A YouGov poll was conducted for Just and SAY24 — a joint project between Stanford, Arizona State and Yale universities — found Harris leading Trump 47 percent to 45 percent. The poll surveyed 1,266 registered voters Oct. 18-21 and has a margin of error of about 3 percent.

A CNBC poll conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 19 puts Trump ahead of Harris 48 percent to 46 percent. The poll polled 1,000 voters nationwide and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 4-8 found 51 percent of voters supporting Harris, compared to 48 percent for Trump. The survey surveyed 2,631 adults in the United States. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.