San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction: College Football Odds, Tips

The Boise State Broncos are in the driver’s seat in the race for the Group of 5 College Football Playoffs.

They are now 6-1 after a tough win over UNLV last week.

The Broncos’ only loss came against AP No. 1 Oregon on a last-second field goal.

Boise State is a fantastic team led by a Heisman favorite in running back Ashton Jeanty and an ever-improving quarterback in Maddux Madsen.

A fully healthy, motivated Broncos team would have no problem defeating the 3-4 San Diego State Aztecs.

Still, I wonder if the Broncos are healthy or motivated for Friday’s showdown.

Read on for my odds, predictions and picks for San Diego State vs. Boise State for their Week 10 college football game on Friday, November 1st.

San Diego State vs Boise State odds

San Diego State vs. Boise State prediction

(8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)

As far as motivation goes, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boise sleepwalked through this game after an emotional win last week.

Jeanty’s health looks poor.

He appeared to injure his left arm in the first half against UNLV and posted his worst stats of the year (33 carries, 128 yards, 3.9 yards per carry).

I wouldn’t be surprised if head coach Spencer Danielson limits Jeanty’s appearance as a 24-point favorite against a significantly inferior opponent.

Obviously, this would significantly weaken Boise State’s rushing attack.

Madsen stepped up during Jeanty’s disappointment against UNLV, but I’m still skeptical about his upside as a passer.

San Diego State’s front seven is weak, but the secondary is half-decent, ranking 26th nationally in EPA per pass allowed and 27th in Pro Football Focus coverage grades.

A limited Jeanty bodes well for the Aztec defense as Boise would need to target more over the top.

Unfortunately, I have no confidence in the Aztec offense, which ranks 118th nationally in success rate (37%) and second-to-last in average third-down distance (8.4 yards).

Head coach Sean Lewis is considered a smart offensive coach, but he hasn’t done anything with quarterback Danny O’Neil.

Picking between San Diego State and Boise State

I bet on a lower scoring ball game.

Although Boise’s defense is deficient, San Diego State can’t move the ball consistently against anyone – the Aztecs have averaged 332 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play in their three road games this season.

Meanwhile, I expect limited offensive production from Boise State.

The Broncos will likely want to build a lead in the first half, keep the ball in the second half and leave the game healthy.

Betting on college football?

At least we can expect a stormy game script.

Boise State likes to lean on Jeanty, while San Diego State’s most talented offensive playmaker is running back Marquez Cooper (748 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, eight touchdowns this season).

Both of these offenses are ranked in the top 40 nationally and are exceeding expectations.

A stormy game script keeps the clock ticking and leaves limited time for points.

My numbers are over/under about 56, but that takes into account a healthy Jeanty. Given the context and encounter, being under 57 or better is worth a try.

Pick: Under 57.5 (-110, BetMGM) | Play to under 57 (-110)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a die-hard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and all the underdogs in his homeland. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by beating Sandy Alcantara at 40/1 to win the NL Cy Young.