Sturm Dexter could form in the Golf and recharge the next flood threat

This week, this time along the Gulf Coast, it is growing concerns about another significant rain and flood event of what could become the next tropical system of the Atlantic basin.

The potential flood threat to the storm is only the youngest in a summer full of fatal and devastating floods.

The potential storm is currently a wide area with showers and thunderstorms above the Florida peninsula. According to the National Hurricane Center, it will be drifted to the west until the middle of this week, where it has a medium chance to become a tropical depression.

If it can be a defined center of the circulation and strengthen itself, it will be Dexter, the fourth name Sturm of the Atlantic-Hurrican season-a brand, which is usually reached around mid-August.

If it is the golf coast, it would do this – a memory that storms form in a warm, flat water closer to land in July. Warm water looks like fuel for storms to form and strengthen themselves, and the surface temperatures of the sea are well above average where the system is expected.

The conditions currently do not look favorable for a strong storm, since this system probably does not have much time to mature over water, and also have to overcome enemy winds at the upper level.

However, some renowned forecast models forecast an organized system until late a week, possibly a tropical storm, in the Golf. The result could depend on the system. If it dives further south and spends more time over the Golf, it could get stronger if it can withstand the wind -level winds on its trip.

Even if it is not mentioned, this system will bring tropical rains to Florida and parts of the golf coast in the next few days. This increase in damp tropical air helped on Tuesday with 2.25 inch rain and broke its previous daily record of 2 inches on July 15, 1935.

On parts of the Florida peninsula there is a level 2 of 4 risks to flood rain, including Tampa and Orlando on Wednesday morning, since the system types in a rich tropical moisture and increases the rain rates and flood potential. The most intense storms are probably in the afternoon and evening when the system drifts throughout the state. Rain sums can be between 1 and 3 inches.

But the most serious flood threat will come later this week and the weekend when the system dives into parts of the north-central golf coast, including Alabama, Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana. Heavy rain could be durable as soon as it begins, possibly already on Wednesday evening.

Fall floods are the main concern, especially when rain bands repeatedly follow over the same areas as to what could occur if the system moves slowly and linger.

A level 2 of 4 threats to flood rain is available on Thursday for Southeasters Louisiana, including New Orleans and parts of coastal alabama and Mississippi. Until Friday, the threat to parts of Louisiana increased to a level 3 of 4, including Baton Rouge due to fears that heavy rain could linger. A few centimeters of rain are possible in the worst case scenarios.

It is clear that heavy rain and floods threaten a large part of the north-central golf coast, but exactly where and how much remains questionable. It all depends on how strong the system becomes, where it is pursuing and how quickly it is moving – questions that will be sorted in the next few days.

This story has been updated with additional information.