How Local Leaders Are Cutting Crime Without More Cops

After years of headlines and reports warning of rising violence and disastrously high crime rates, something remarkable is happening: America’s crime rates are quickly dropping.

According to new data from the Vera Institute of Justice and the Council on Criminal Justice, homicides in the U.S. fell by 16 percent in 2024, with early 2025 showing an even sharper decline. In some cities, shootings are down nearly 40 percent.

The national murder rate is now approaching pre-pandemic levels—despite political rhetoric suggesting otherwise.

“In and even in 2024, we are nationally at crime rates that match pre-pandemic lows.” said Insha Rahman, vice president of advocacy and partnerships at the Vera Institute of Justice. “The increase in crime that happened as a result of the COVID-19 was basically wiped out entirely by 2024 and now we are witnessing declines that go even beyond pre-pandemic lows.”

Rahman, who’s also director of Vera Action, an independent, but aligned, sister nonprofit organization, highlighted double-digit declines in homicides and violent crime in Chicago, Baltimore, Birmingham, and Detroit. She and Vera Institute credit this decline to the work of municipal leaders and their crime prevention strategies.

“Cities in particular, and this isn’t just big urban cities, but actually more suburban communities, are making real investment in building out a larger, comprehensive public safety infrastructure that supports police to focus on serious crime and then expands the tools and the toolkit of who should be the right first responder to a crisis to prevent crime,” she said.

While the downward trend began nearly a year before President Trump’s return to the White House, the Trump administration has taken credit, without any evidence linking their deportation strategy to an overall decrease in crime.

“We’ve removed thousands of violent criminal, illegal aliens from our communities… and just a few months into office, the national murder rate has plummeted by 28 percent,” the President said during a roundtable with the Fraternal Order of Police.

Despite shifting political rhetoric from Washington, the data tells a different—and encouraging—story.

The United States is in the midst of a sustained, nationwide decline in violent crime. Part of a broader, multi-year trend led by local governments, the decrease began in the wake of the pandemic’s peak. However, federal budget cuts stand to threaten the progress driven by targeted community investments, data-informed law enforcement, and a renewed focus on public and mental health.

This multi-year decline comes at a time when local police departments are operating with fewer officers. A 2024 survey by the International Association of Chiefs of Police found that departments are operating with a nearly 10 percent staffing deficit, with 65 percent reporting reduced services.

Rahman sees this as further evidence that violent crime can’t be solved through law enforcement alone.

“There has been decades of research that have found that simply adding more police is not going to drive down crime rates,” she said.

She went on to explain that, “we have actually seen in recent years as police departments have gotten smaller and again seen crime rates go down. So there’s just no correlation between investing more in police and more funding for police and crime going down.”

Rahman also referenced a 2024 Brookings study which, based on the analysis of police records, found a direct connection between the 2020 spike in violent crime and local unemployment and school closures in low-income communities.

The report highlights how violence is concentrated in areas of poverty due to a lack of opportunity, weaker social networks, income disparities, and environmental hazards, like lead paint and air pollution, which are linked to violent behavior later in life.

Municipal leaders and mayors, Rahman argues, have been on the front lines of bringing violent crime to historic lows.

In mid-July, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson marked the one-year anniversary of the Scaling Community Violence Intervention for a Safer Chicago (SC2) initiative. The program targets neighborhoods on the South and West Sides where gun violence surged.

“It’s policing and affordable housing, policing and mental and behavioral health services,” Mayor Johnson said at the event. “We have 29,000 young people that will have summer jobs this summer: a 45 percent increase. But it is also working with every single level of government.”

The $400 million public-private partnership expanded violence intervention efforts and aimed to address gun-related crime through holistic solutions. According to the mayor’s office, fatal shootings are down 25 percent over the past 12 months, and overall crime is down 33 percent.

As Rahman explained, Johnson’s administration has invested in public schools, parks, and programs to support vulnerable residents—all while navigating a politically resistant city and statewide apparatus.

“There’s a lot to be said about managing a big city where a lot of politics is against you, as Mr. Johnson has experienced from the beginning of his mayoralty,” she said.

Given those circumstances, Johnson told Forbes he and his team are proud of what they’ve accomplished.

“We’ve seen a significant reduction in crime and violence in Chicago because of our focus on more effective and strategic policing, our partnerships between law enforcement and community violence intervention groups, and our investments in people, particularly mental health services and youth summer jobs, ” he said.

Johnson, a longtime resident of Chicago’s Austin neighborhood, which was deeply impacted by the pandemic crime spike, focused safety efforts on the 35 most violent police beats in the city, often characterized by the convergence of poverty, unemployment, and historic disinvestment.

In Baltimore, more than 700 miles east of Chicago, a similar approach is unfolding as second-term mayor Brandon Scott makes crime reduction his political north star.

Once labeled one of America’s most dangerous cities, Baltimore has seen a 22 percent drop in homicides, a 19 percent drop in nonfatal shootings, and a 71 percent reduction in juvenile homicide victims—a 50-year low.

“As someone who grew up in Baltimore in the 80s and 90s, the era of stop and frisk, I know from experience that making our city safer cannot be the job of the police department alone,” said Scott, a native Baltimorean whose high school is just blocks from City Hall “It takes all of us working together, with a shared vision, to deliver the kind of sustained progress we’re seeing today.”

As part of its Group Violence Reduction Strategy, the city coordinates law enforcement, community leaders, and health providers to address the root causes of crime. The program includes job training, education, and relocation services for individuals most at risk.

Baltimore is also seeing citywide declines in auto thefts (down 34 percent), robberies (22 percent), arson (10 percent), and carjackings (15 percent). Scott credits the work of residents and long-term investments poured into the community under his leadership.

“It takes investments beyond the police department, including in resources like rec centers, parks, pools, and schools, to build healthy, resilient communities that nurture healthy, resilient people,” Scott said.

These gains also come as migration to the city increases at a relatively high rate. Scott attributes this gain to community members who are making the choice to heal their city.

“But our work is far from over. 68 lives lost to violence is 68 too many,” Scott said. “While we acknowledge the historic lows we are experiencing, we must simultaneously acknowledge that there is much more work to do and our success makes me commit even further to doing it.”

In Birmingham, the year-to-date homicide rate dropped by 52 percent as Mayor Randall Woodfin champions a community-first approach.

“The Birmingham Police Department is extremely aggressive in what they are doing and how they’re taking a different approach in policing our community.” Woodfin told The Washington Informer.

Like Johnson, Woodfin is making progress without full support from higher levels of government. While the Chicago mayor faces opposition from fellow Democrats in City Hall and the State Capital, Woodfin contends with a Republican-led state legislature. This past spring, in what was seen as a power grab, Alabama lawmakers passed a bill to restructure the city’s locally controlled Water Works Board.

The success of all three mayors, all of whom are Black men, has been aided by federal funding from the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act.

Signed by President Biden, the law created 2,300 new early-intervention programs and allowed 3,500 public schools to expand their violence prevention teams. It also triggered investments in mental health care, housing, and responses to other root causes of crime.

But in July, much of that funding was repealed through President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which cut Medicaid, food programs, and community-based safety initiatives—returning to a traditional law-enforcement-heavy strategy.

Johnson believes this could unravel local progress.

“Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill will cut healthcare, food and education funding for poor Chicagoans, undermining our efforts to stabilize our neighborhoods to reverse the gains we’ve made,” he said.

Rahman agrees and warns the rollback could lead to a reversal in crime trends nationwide.

“President Trump has actually done a number of things that are likely to actually drive crime rates back-up, with the clearest example being cutting almost $1 billion worth in Department of Justice funding for crime reduction programing,” she said.

While Rahman pointed to cuts in crisis response, incarceration alternatives, after-school programs, and community-based mental health care, she believes voters are paying attention.

Referencing recent Vera exit polling from the New York mayoral primary, she noted that 75% of Democratic voters preferred investments in “good schools, jobs, and affordable housing” over a “tough on crime” approach.

While it’s too early to gauge the long-term effects of Trump’s strategy, one thing is clear: the locally led, community-driven approach adopted by mayors like Johnson, Scott, and Woodfin is working and reshaping what public safety looks like in America.